The paper explores the impacts of changes in renewable energy sources (RES) financing in Poland on the profitability of coupled photovoltaic panels and heat pump systems. The profitability analysis is conducted with the use of Net Present Value calculation and the return on investment period. The degree of change in profitability of using photovoltaic panels in Poland is dependent on the method of their financing. The analysis is carried out for two different photovoltaic support schemes: (1) the net-metering scheme currently in force in Poland; (2) the net-billing system scheduled for implementation in the year 2022. It is assumed for the analysis that two alternative heating and electricity supply systems for a single-family building will be operated: (a) a standard solution used in Poland consisting of a natural gas-fired boiler for heating and the purchase of electricity from the power grid, (b) an air/water heat pump used to heat the building, and electricity obtained from photovoltaic panels, also used to power the heat pump. A sensitivity analysis is carried out, examining the impact of several key parameters relevant for the profitability of such investments, such as average annual increase in the purchasing or selling prices of electricity, purchasing prices of natural gas, and inflation rate. The conclusions concern the possible consequences of introducing a new support scheme for photovoltaics in Poland. The highest profitability of all considered solutions is for the current scenario for heat pump and pv installation with the capacity to meet the demand in the last year of operation. The introduction of changes in the new RES law (2021) in Poland will reduce the profitability of investments in pv panels, leading to a slowdown in the investments in the pv installations.
In this article, the authors analyzed two extreme investment variants considering the installed capacity of Poland’s residential pv installation: (a) pv installation meets electricity demand only in the first year of operation, and in each subsequent year it is necessary to purchase electricity at market prices; (b) installation meets electricity demand even in the last year of operation, and in each previous year, the excess of generated electricity needs to be transferred back to the grid, with the limited (by law) right of drawing it from the grid for free in the future. In the article, a sensitivity analysis was performed, and profitability changes were established based on the NPV value, depending on case (a) or (b). The performed analyses showed that the pv installation profitability should not be analyzed, assuming only one moment when it meets 100% of the household’s electricity demand. It was shown that the choice of such a moment, depending on the value of particular technical and financial parameters, can lead to a change in the NPV value, even over 10%. Although the studies were done for Poland, such an approach can be implemented in other countries.
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