The article considers methodological aspects of grouping regions of a federal district by the degree of their competitiveness in the sectoral markets with account of determination of the probability of transition of a certain economic activity from one group of competitiveness to another. At that, an effort is for the first time taken to substantiate the matrix approach to determination of the competitiveness of sectoral markets, which allows taking into account all possible combinations of the market competitive profile of a region, which combines all possible combinations of localization and concentration of manufacture. The authors carry out experimental computations regarding assessment of competitiveness of the industrial profile of the Republic of Tatarstan in the Volga Federal District, and based on that develop probabilistic forecasts of transition of certain economic activities of the Republic of Tatarstan from one competitiveness group to another.

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