The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model (ACCESS-CM) has been developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), a partnership between CSIRO 1 and the Bureau of Meteorology. It is built by coupling the UK Met Office atmospheric unified model (UM), and other sub-models as required, to the ACCESS ocean model, which consists of the NOAA/GFDL 2 ocean model MOM4p1 and the LANL 3 sea-ice model CICE4.1, under the CERFACS 4 OASIS3.2-5 coupling framework. The primary goal of the ACCESS-CM development is to provide the Australian climate community with a new generation fully coupled climate model for climate research, and to participate in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). This paper describes the ACCESS-CM framework and components, and presents the control climates from two versions of the ACCESS-CM, ACCESS1.0 and AC-CESS1.3, together with some fields from the 20 th century historical experiments, as part of model evaluation. While sharing the same ocean sea-ice model (except different setups for a few parameters), ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3 differ from each other in their atmospheric and land surface components: the former is configured with the UK Met Office HadGEM2 (r1.1) atmospheric physics and the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme land surface model version 2, and the latter with atmospheric physics similar to the UK Met Office Global Atmosphere 1.0 including modifications performed at CAWCR and the CSIRO Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange land surface model version 1.8. The global average annual mean surface air temperature across the 500-year preindustrial control integrations show a warming drift of 0.35 °C in ACCESS1.0 and 0.04 °C in AC-CESS1.3. The overall skills of ACCESS-CM in simulating a set of key climatic fields both globally and over Australia significantly surpass those from the preceding CSIRO Mk3.5 model delivered to the previous coupled model inter-comparison. However, ACCESS-CM, like other CMIP5 models, has deficiencies in various aspects, and these are also discussed.

Mora and colleagues show that ongoing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have a considerable effect on several biogeochemical properties of the world's oceans, with potentially serious consequences for biodiversity and human welfare.

Abstract. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951–2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951–2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

ABSTRACT:We assess the simulation of Australian mean climate and rainfall variability in a new version of the CSIRO coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model (GCM). The new version, called Mark 3.6 (Mk3.6), differs from its recent predecessors (Mk3.0 and Mk3.5) by inclusion of an interactive aerosol scheme, which treats sulfate, dust, sea salt and carbonaceous aerosol. Other changes include an updated radiation scheme and a modified boundary-layer treatment.Comparison of the mean summer and winter climate simulations in Mk3.6 with those in Mk3.0 and Mk3.5 shows several improvements in the new version, especially regarding winter rainfall and sea-level pressure. The improved simulation of Australian mean seasonal climate is confirmed by calculation of a non-dimensional skill score (the 'M-statistic'), using data from all four seasons. However, the most dramatic improvement occurs in the model's simulation of the leading modes of annual rainfall variability, which we assess using empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs). Compared to its predecessors and several international GCMs, Mk3.6 is best able to capture the spatial pattern of the leading rainfall mode, which represents variability due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mk3.6 is also best able to capture the spatial pattern of the second rainfall mode, which corresponds to increased rainfall in the northwest, and decreased rainfall over eastern Australia. We propose a possible mechanism for the improved simulation of rainfall variability in terms of the role of interactive dust in Mk3.6. By further suppressing convection over eastern Australia during El Niño events, dust feedbacks may enhance rainfall variability there, in tune with the model's ENSO cycle. This suggests that an interactive aerosol treatment may be important in a GCM used for the study of Australian climate change and variability. Mechanistic sensitivity studies are needed to further evaluate this hypothesis.