No abstract

Worldwide, forests provide natural resources and ecosystem services. However, forest ecosystems are threatened by increasing forest disturbance dynamics, caused by direct human activities or by altering environmental conditions. It is decisive to reconstruct and trace the intra- to transannual dynamics of forest ecosystems. National to local forest authorities and other stakeholders request detailed area-wide maps that delineate forest disturbance dynamics at various spatial scales. We developed a time series analysis (TSA) framework that comprises data download, data management, image preprocessing and an advanced but flexible TSA. We use dense Sentinel-2 time series and a dynamic Savitzky–Golay-filtering approach to model robust but sensitive phenology courses. Deviations from the phenology models are used to derive detailed spatiotemporal information on forest disturbances. In a first case study, we apply the TSA to map forest disturbances directly or indirectly linked to recurring bark beetle infestation in Northern Austria. In addition to spatially detailed maps, zonal statistics on different spatial scales provide aggregated information on the extent of forest disturbances between 2018 and 2019. The outcomes are (a) area-wide consistent data of individual phenology models and deduced phenology metrics for Austrian forests and (b) operational forest disturbance maps, useful to investigate and monitor forest disturbances to facilitate sustainable forest management.

This is a case study on a small mountainous island in the Aegean Sea with the policy goal of preparing it to become member of UNESCO's World Network of Biosphere Reserves. While the local community opted for such an identity very early on, there are a number of obstacles to be overcome. The multidisciplinary research is based upon a sociometabolic approach and focuses on two issues: The transformation of agriculture, mainly herding of sheep and goats, and the shift to tourism. The degradation of the landscape caused by extensive roaming of goats and sheep constitute one of the major sustainability challenges of the island. We analyze farmers' opportunities and describe new initiatives to get out of this deadlock. The impacts of the transition to tourism are addressed from an infrastructural perspective: A shift from traditional stone buildings to bricks and concrete, the establishment of new roads and ports, and the challenges to water supply and wastewater removal, also with reference to the quality and amounts of wastes generated that need to be dealt with. The island has so far escaped mass tourism and attracts mainly eco-tourists who value its remoteness and wilderness. We discuss how to serve this clientele best in the future, and increase local job opportunities and income while maintaining environmental quality. Finally, we reflect upon emerging new forms of local collaboration and the impact of our research efforts on a sustainability transition that might be on its way.

The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species—Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia, F. excelsior, Populus nigra, Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis, and U. minor. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services.

<p>Worldwide, forests provide natural resources and ecosystem services. However, forest ecosystems are threatened by increasing forest disturbance dynamics, caused by direct human activities or by altering environmental conditions. It is decisive to reconstruct and trace the intra- to transannual dynamics of forest ecosystems. Therefore, the monitoring of large and small scale vegetation changes such as those caused by natural events (e.g., pest infestation, higher mortality due to altering site conditions) or forest management practices (e.g., thinning or selective timber extraction) becomes more and more crucial. National to local forest authorities and other stakeholders request detailed area-wide maps that delineate forest disturbance dynamics at various spatial scales.</p><p>We developed a time series analysis (TSA) framework that comprises data download, data management, image preprocessing and an advanced but flexible TSA. We use dense Sentinel-2 time series and a dynamic Savitzky–Golay-filtering approach to model robust but sensitive phenology courses. Deviations from the phenology models are used to derive detailed spatiotemporal information on forest disturbances. In a first case study, we apply the TSA to map forest disturbances directly or indirectly linked to recurring bark beetle infestation in Northern Austria.</p><p>In addition to spatiotemporal disturbance maps, we produce zonal statistics on different spatial scales that provide aggregated information on the extent of forest disturbances between 2018 and 2019. The outcomes are (a) area-wide consistent data of individual phenology models and deduced phenology metrics for Austrian forests and (b) operational forest disturbance maps, useful to investigate and monitor forest disturbances, for example to facilitate sustainable forest management.</p><p>At a forest stand level, we reconstruct the origin date of forest disturbances (FDD – Forest Disturbance Date). Theses FDD outputs show the spatiotemporal patterns and the development of damages and indicate that most dynamics are caused by recurring and spreading bark beetle infestation. The validation results based on field data confirm a high detection rate and show that the derived temporal information is reliable. In total, 23400 hectares, i.e., on average 2.8% of the forest area in the study area, are found to be affected by forest disturbance. The zonal statistic maps point out hotspots of significant forest disturbances, where adequate forest management measures are highly needed. Furthermore, this study highlights the TSA’s potential to also depict and monitor minor human impacts on forests, such as thinning, selective timber extraction or other moderate forest management practices.</p><p><strong>Keywords:  </strong><em>forest disturbance; forest monitoring; bark beetle infestation; forest management; time series analysis; phenology modelling; remote sensing; satellite imagery; Sentinel-2</em></p>