The emergence of new industrial development paths is an important topic in economic geography. However, current perspectives emphasizing the constraining forces of historical trajectories on innovation and change have shortcomings in accounting for how and where new industries arise. This article argues that more attention needs to be paid to agency, and that agency must be seen as intertemporal in the sense that actors' activities and strategies are framed by combinations of experiences and expectations. As such, the article combines insights from economic geography, transitions studies and the sociology of expectations literature to expand extant theory on path creation. A brief analysis of the emerging Norwegian offshore wind power sector serves to illustrate how experience (the past) and different types of expectations (the future) have tangible effects on agency, and in effect on path creation processes. These insights have methodological implications, essentially favouring qualitative approaches over quantitative ones to understand formative phases in industrial development.

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Within the sustainability transitions literature, established, mature or incumbent firms have been stereotyped as 'locked-in' to socio-technical regimes. However, we believe regimes have been blackboxed, and few studies have explored incumbents' responses to transition processes. This article aims to achieve an improved understanding of incumbents in established energy sectors and their extent of involvement in other (niche) energy sectors. To this avail, we analyze data from a first-ofits-kind survey of 133 incumbent firms in Norway's two main energy sectors, namely oil/gas and hydropower. Providing inter-temporal dimensions, our data covers incumbents' diversification activities beyond their primary sector both in the past (cancelled activities), present (ongoing activity in secondary sectors) and future (ambitions of diversification), and also distinguishes between producers and product/service suppliers. By incorporating insights on firm diversification, our analysis sheds new light on the complex transformation processes associated with sustainability transitions. Empirical results show considerable heterogeneity in incumbents' responses to changing selection pressures, which can be explained by recognition that windows of opportunity are opening and some incumbents see potential to leverage their resources and capabilities to capture value in new niche energy sectors in both domestic and international markets. Highlights Multidisciplinary analytical approach to explore cross-sectorial industry dynamics  Novel quantitative study design with inter-temporal and cross-sectorial dimensions  Empirical mapping also captures incumbents' various value chain positions  Results show that energy incumbents are diversified into other (green) energy sectors  Industrial change processes are underpinned through empirical explanatory factors