Environmental niche modeling outputs a biological species' potential distribution. Further work is needed to arrive at a species' realized distribution. The Biological Species Approximate Realized Niche (BioSARN) application provides the ecological modeler with a toolset to refine Environmental niche models (ENMs). These tools include soil and land class filtering, niche area quantification and novelties like enhanced temporal corridor definition, and output to a high spatial resolution land class model. BioSARN is exemplified with a study on Fraser fir, a tree species with strong land class and edaphic correlations. Soil and land class filtering caused the potential distribution area to decline 17%. Enhanced temporal corridor definition permitted distinction of current, continuing, and future niches, and thus niche change and movement. Tile quantification analysis provided further corroboration of these trends. BioSARN does not substitute other established ENM methods. Rather, it allows the experimenter to work with their preferred ENM, refining it using their knowledge and experience. Output from lower spatial resolution ENMs to a high spatial resolution land class model is a pseudo high‐resolution result. Still, it maybe the best that can be achieved until wide range high spatial resolution environmental data and accurate high precision species occurrence data become generally available.

To construct Biodiversity richness maps from Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) of thousands of species is time consuming. A separate species occurrence data pre-processing phase enables the experimenter to control test AUC score variance due to species dataset size. Besides, removing duplicate occurrences and points with missing environmental data, we discuss the need for coordinate precision, wide dispersion, temporal and synonymity filters. After species data filtering, the final task of a pre-processing phase should be the automatic generation of species occurrence datasets which can then be directly 'plugged-in' to the ENM. A software application capable of carrying out all these tasks will be a valuable time-saver particularly for large scale biodiversity studies.

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We assess how effectively the current network of protected areas (PAs) across the Iberian Peninsula will conserve plant diversity under near-future (2020) climate change. We computed 3267 MAXENT environmental niche models (ENMs) at 1-km spatial resolution for known Iberian plant species under two climate scenarios (1950-2000 baseline & 2020). To predict near-future species distributions across the network of Iberian and Balearics PAs, we combined projections of species' ENMs with simulations of propagule dispersal by using six scenarios of annual dispersal rates (no dispersal, 0.1 km, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km and unlimited). Mined PA grid cell values for each species were then analyzed. We forecast 3% overall floristic diversity richness loss by 2020. The habitat of regionally extant species will contract on average by 13.14%. Niche movement exceeds 1 km per annum for 30% of extant species. While the southerly range margin of northern plant species retracts northward at 8.9 km per decade, overall niche movement is more easterly and westerly than northerly. There is little expansion of the northern range margin of southern plant species even under unlimited dispersal. Regardless of propagule dispersal rate, altitudinal niche movement of +25 m per decade is strongest for northern species. Pyrenees flora is most vulnerable to near-future climate change with many northern plant species responding by shifting their range westerly and easterly rather than northerly. Northern humid habitats will be particularly vulnerable to near-future climate change. Andalusian National Parks will become important southern biodiversity refuges. With limited human intervention (particularly in the Pyrenees), we conclude that floristic diversity in Iberian PAs should withstand near-future climate change. * Corresponding author. M. J. Heap et al.1090

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