The main objective of this paper is to elaborate econometric model forecasting the stocks of migrants from the Eastern European states (EES) in the Visegrad group (V4) countries and the European Union Member States (EU MS) in case of visa abolition. We use the data span of 2008-2012 and the econometric techniques known as Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Panel data Least Squares (PLS) and General method of moments (GMM) to build three types of possible scenarios for migration from the Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) to the V4 and to the EU as a whole in the next 35 years, i.e. until the year of 2050 with a simulated shock of visa abolition set at the year of 2015. Our results show that hypothetical visa abolition is not going to dramatically increase migration from the Eastern European countries in the EU Member States. Even though the immediate effect of visa abolition would probably result in the slight increase of migration stocks in the V4 and EU countries, the annual migration stocks comprised of residents of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine in the EU MS in a long term might be around from one and a half to just above three-three and a half million people. Furthermore, a successful accession period with high growth and implementation of the reforms is actually leading to elimination of the migration pressures. More precisely, the citizens of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine that had the strongest incentives to migrate have already done so long before the visas are eventually abolished.

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Ukrainian migration to the European Union from the risk perspective The aim of this paper is to analyse, through the prism of risk theories, migration from Ukraine to the European Union in a multidimensional perspective. Risks taken by different actors associated with migration along this route have been considered. At the micro-level these are risks borne by Ukrainian migrants themselves. At the macro-level these are risks borne by both states of destination and origin. The concept of risk is the most suitable theoretical approach to be applied in the case of analyzing Eastern European migration. Migration to the fortress “Europe” creates many risks for the migrants and is treated as a challenge by the state actors. At the same time, it cannot be regard as a as a security threat. It is very modest both in the numbers and possible adverse consequences for all stakeholders involved. The article pays special attention to the issue of possible risks related to the eruption of armed conflict in Eastern Europe. It argues that those risks have grown but not significantly and the most affected actor is the Ukrainian state itself, who in a long-term perspective may experience dramatic demographic challenges. Both migrants as well the EU destination states may be at higher risk only in a case of serious destabilization at the whole Ukrainian territory.

Security sector reform has remained largely disconnected from the broader debate on societal transition in the literature thus far. We conceptualise how external support to security sector reform could potentially facilitate socio-political order opening in a limited access order. Based on two dimensions, we examine the case of NATO and EU's support to Ukraine's security sector reform between 2014 and 2019. NATO's support to the military and the EU's support to the police and state security service (SBU) appear unlikely to cause opening of the social order, while NATO's support to the military-industrial complex is more likely to cause opening.