The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric zonal winds is simulated in an atmospheric general circulation model and its sensitivity to model parameters is explored. Vertical resolution in the lower tropical stratosphere finer than ≈1 km and sufficiently strong forcing by parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag are both required for the model to exhibit a QBO-like oscillation. Coarser vertical resolution yields oscillations that are seasonally synchronized and driven mainly by gravity wave drag. As vertical resolution increases, wave forcing in the tropical lower stratosphere increases and seasonal synchronization is disrupted, allowing quasi-biennial periodicity to emerge. Seasonal synchronization could result from the form of wave dissipation assumed in the gravity wave parameterization, which allows downward influence by semiannual oscillation (SAO) winds, whereas dissipation of resolved waves is consistent with radiative damping and no downward influence. Parameterized wave drag is nevertheless required to generate a realistic QBO, effectively acting to amplify the relatively weaker mean-flow forcing by resolved waves.

We develop an approach combining mass balance and four‐dimensional variational (4D‐Var) methods to facilitate inversion of decadal‐scale total nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) emissions. In 7 year pseudo‐observation tests, hybrid posterior emissions have smaller normalized mean square error (NMSE) than that of mass balance when compared to true emissions in most cases and perform slightly better in detecting NOx emission magnitudes and trends. Using this hybrid method, OMI NO2 satellite observations and the GEOS‐Chem chemical transport model, we find more than 30% increases of emissions over most of East China at the 0.5° × 0.667° grid cell level, leading to a 16% growth of emissions over all of China from 2005 to 2012, whereas emissions in several urban centers have decreased by 10–26% in the same period. From 2010 to 2012, a decline is found in the North China Plain, Hubei Province, and Pearl River Delta area, coinciding with China's enforcement of its twelfth “Five Year Plan.” Changes in individual grid cell may be different from changes over the entire city or province, as exemplified by opposite trends in Beijing versus the Mentougou district of Beijing from 2005 to 2012. Also, NO2 columns do not necessarily have the same trend as NOx emissions due to their nonlinear response to emissions and the influence of meteorology, the latter alone which can cause up to 30% interannual changes in NO2 columns. Compared to recent bottom‐up inventories, hybrid posterior emissions have the same seasonality, smaller emissions, and emission growth rate at the national scale.

[1] The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signature in the equatorial upper stratosphere and mesosphere is analyzed from MAECHAM5 and HAMMONIA general circulation models. Our results show that this region is significantly influenced by the stratospheric QBO. In the upper stratosphere the QBO modulates the altitude of maximum descent of the stratospheric semiannual oscillation (SSAO) westerly phases. Our results also suggest that the QBO modulates the altitude of maximum descent and also the strength of the SSAO easterly phase. We explore the role of large-scale and small-scale waves and also momentum advection in the forcing of the QBO signature in the SSAO domain. The results show how the vertical propagation of the QBO signature to the middle and upper mesosphere depends on the vertical phase structure of the SAO and consequently on the seasonal cycle. During the solstices when MSAO westerlies prevail in the middle and upper mesosphere no QBO signature can be detected above the stratopause region. However, during the equinoxes, when MSAO easterlies dominate in the middle and upper mesosphere, the QBO signature extends throughout the mesosphere and low thermosphere. The QBO directly modulates MSAO easterlies by modifying the altitude at which they are generated in the upper mesosphere. A QBO signature is also detected on the MSAO westerly phase occurring in the mesopause region during the equinoxes.Citation: Peña-Ortiz, C., H. Schmidt, M. A. Giorgetta, and M. Keller (2010), QBO modulation of the semiannual oscillation in MAECHAM5 and HAMMONIA,

Abstract. We examined biases in the global GEOS-Chem chemical transport model for the period of February–May 2010 using weak-constraint (WC) four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation and dry-air mole fractions of CH4 (XCH4) from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The ability of the observations and the WC 4D-Var method to mitigate model errors in CH4 concentrations was first investigated in a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). We then assimilated the GOSAT XCH4 retrievals and found that they were capable of providing information on the vertical structure of model errors and of removing a significant portion of biases in the modeled CH4 state. In the WC 4D-Var assimilation, corrections were added to the modeled CH4 state at each model time step to account for model errors and improve the model fit to the assimilated observations. Compared to the conventional strong-constraint (SC) 4D-Var assimilation, the WC method was able to significantly improve the model fit to independent observations. Examination of the WC state corrections suggested that a significant source of model errors was associated with discrepancies in the model CH4 in the stratosphere. The WC state corrections also suggested that the model vertical transport in the troposphere at middle and high latitudes is too weak. The problem was traced back to biases in the uplift of CH4 over the source regions in eastern China and North America. In the tropics, the WC assimilation pointed to the possibility of biased CH4 outflow from the African continent to the Atlantic in the mid-troposphere. The WC assimilation in this region would greatly benefit from glint observations over the ocean to provide additional constraints on the vertical structure of the model errors in the tropics. We also compared the WC assimilation at 4∘ × 5∘ and 2∘ × 2.5∘ horizontal resolutions and found that the WC corrections to mitigate the model errors were significantly larger at 4∘ × 5∘ than at 2∘ × 2.5∘ resolution, indicating the presence of resolution-dependent model errors. Our results illustrate the potential utility of the WC 4D-Var approach for characterizing model errors. However, a major limitation of this approach is the need to better characterize the specified model error covariance in the assimilation scheme.

Abstract. The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) represents a transition region between the more dynamically active troposphere and more stably stratified stratosphere. The region is characterized by strong gradients in the distribution of long-lived tracers, whose representation in models is sensitive to discrepancies in transport. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem model in the UTLS using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) observations from the HIAPER (The High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign in March 2010. GEOS-Chem CO 2 /O 3 correlation suggests that there is a discrepancy in mixing across the tropopause in the model, which results in an overestimate of CO 2 and an underestimate of O 3 in the Arctic lower stratosphere. We assimilate stratospheric O 3 data from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) and use the assimilated O 3 fields together with the HIPPO CO 2 /O 3 correlations to obtain an adjustment to the modeled CO 2 profile in the Arctic UTLS (primarily between the 320 and 360 K isentropic surfaces). The HIPPOderived adjustment corresponds to a sink of 0.60 Pg C for March-August 2010 in the Arctic. Imposing this adjustment results in a reduction in the CO 2 sinks inferred from GOSAT observations for temperate North America, Europe, and tropical Asia of 19, 13, and 49 %, respectively. Conversely, the inversion increased the source of CO 2 from tropical South America by 23 %. We find that the model also underestimates CO 2 in the upper tropical and subtropical troposphere. Correcting for the underestimate in the model relative to HIPPO in the tropical upper troposphere leads to a reduction in the source from tropical South America by 77 %, and produces an estimated sink for tropical Asia that is only 19 % larger than the standard inversion (without the imposed source and sink). Globally, the inversion with the Arctic and tropical adjustment produces a sink of −6.64 Pg C, which is consistent with the estimate of −6.65 Pg C in the standard inversion. However, the standard inversion produces a stronger northern land sink by 0.98 Pg C to account for the CO 2 overestimate in the high-latitude UTLS, suggesting that this UTLS discrepancy can impact the latitudinal distribution of the inferred sources and sinks. We find that doubling the model resolution from 4 • × 5 • to 2 • × 2.5 • enhances the CO 2 vertical gradient in the high-latitude UTLS, and reduces the overestimate in CO 2 in the extratropical lower stratosphere. Our results illustrate that discrepancies in the CO 2 distribution in the UTLS can affect CO 2 flux inversions and suggest the need for more careful evaluation of model errors in the UTLS.