In this article, we are interested in developing an alternative estimation method of the parameters of the hybrid log-Poisson regression model. In our previous paper, we have proposed a hybrid log-Poisson regression model where we have derived the analytical expression of the fuzzy parameters. We found that the hybrid model provide better results than the classical log-Poisson regression model according to the mean square error prediction and the goodness of fit index. However, nowhere we have taken into account the optimal value of h(α-cut) which is of greatest importance in fuzzy regressions literature. In this paper, we provide an alternative estimation method of our hybrid model using a quadratic optimization program and the optimized h-value (α-cut). The expected value of fuzzy number is used as a defuzzification procedure to move from fuzzy values to crisp values. We perform the hybrid model with the alternative estimation we are suggesting on two different numerical data to predict incremental payments in loss reserving. From the mean square error prediction, we prove that the alternative estimation of the new hybrid model with an optimized h-value predicts incremental payments better than the classical log-Poisson regression model as well as the same hybrid model with analytical estimation of parameters. Hence we have optimized the outstanding loss reserves.
In this paper, we derive a new jump-diffusion model for electricity spot price from the "Price-Cap" principle. Next, we show that the model has a non-classical mean-reverting linear drift. Moreover, using this model, we compute a new exact formula for the price of forward contract under an equivalent martingale measure and we compare it to Cartea et al. (Appl Math Finance 12(4):313-335, 2005) formula.
After the dawn of the August 2007 financial crisis, banks became more aware of financial risk leading to the appearance of nonnegligible spreads between LIBOR and OIS rates and also between LIBOR of different tenors. This consequently led to the birth of multicurve models. This study establishes a new model; the multicurve cross-currency LIBOR market model (MCCCLMM). The model extends the initial LIBOR Market Model (LMM) from the single-curve cross-currency economy into the multicurve cross-currency economy. The model incorporates both the risk-free OIS rates and the risky forward LIBOR rates of two different currencies. The established model is suitable for pricing different quanto interest rate derivatives. A brief illustration is given on the application of the MCCCLMM on pricing quanto caplets and quanto floorlets using a Black-like formula derived from the MCCCLMM.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.