Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

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Investigations of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, contagious prion disease of free‐ranging cervids, suggest the disease can cause long‐term population declines in deer (Odocoileus spp.). However, the implications of CWD for elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations are less certain. During 2008–2010, we used rectal biopsies and telemetry to observe disease transmission and survival in adult female elk from a high‐density herd in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) that had been infected by CWD for over 25 years. We studied a cohort of 123 adult female elk that were determined to be free of CWD by rectal biopsy in 2008. Annual incidence of CWD was 0.08 [95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) = 0.05, 0.12]. Annual survival probabilities of the cohort excluding harvest declined from 0.97 in 2008 (BCI = 0.93, 0.99) to 0.85 in 2010 (BCI = 0.75, 0.93). Declines in survival were attributed almost entirely to CWD; the proportion of radiocollared elk that died of CWD increased from 0.02 in 2008 (BCI = 0.00, 0.05) to 0.11 in 2010 (BCI = 0.04, 0.21). We attributed the increase to the time lag required for development of new CWD cases. We used survival rates of susceptible and infected elk to develop a projection matrix for a discrete time, female only model that estimated the intrinsic population growth rate (λ) of this elk herd to be 1.00 (BCI = 0.93, 1.05) using the prevalence of CWD (12.9%) and calf:cow ratios (24:100) observed during this study. Population declines were predicted to occur when prevalence of CWD exceeded 13% (BCI = 0, 35). However, this estimate was contingent on calf:cow ratios and harvest. Greater recruitment will offset some of the effects of CWD, whereas the inclusion of female harvest, which was excluded from this study, would likely result in lower λ values than those observed in this study. We conclude that CWD can exceed natural rates of mortality, reduce survival of adult females, and decrease population growth of elk herds. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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We evaluated a test and cull strategy for lowering chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence in a naturally-infected, free-ranging mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) herd wintering in the town of Estes Park, Colorado, US and in nearby Rocky Mountain National Park. We tested 48-68% of the estimated number of adult (≥1 yr old) deer annually for 5 yr via tonsil biopsy immunohistochemistry (IHC), collecting 1,251 samples from >700 individuals and removing IHC-positive deer. Among males, CWD prevalence during the last 3 yr of selective culling was lower (one-sided Fisher's exact test P=0.014) than in the period prior. In contrast, CWD prevalence among females before culling and after culling were equivalent ( P=0.777). Relatively higher annual testing of males (mean 77%) compared to females (mean 51%) might have contributed to differences seen in responses to management. A more intensive and sustained effort or modified spatial approach might have reduced prevalence more consistently in both sexes. Limitations of this technique in wider management application include cost and labor as well as property access and animal tolerance to repeated capture. However, elements of this approach could potentially be used to augment harvest-based disease management.