Background The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081–2100 as future climate conditions. Results The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan’s northern Alps (36.25–36.5°N, 137.5–137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. Conclusions Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081–2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Range expansion of unmanaged invasive Phyllostachys bamboo stands is one of the most serious problems in ecosystem management in Satoyama area across Japan. It is feared to be accelerated by depopulation and climate change. In this study, we analyzed changes in vegetation and land use by using aerial photography between 1977 and 2014 in a deserted area in Ikusaka village, Nagano Prefecture, central Japan. We also conducted field surveys in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Consequently, the areas of bamboo stands were estimated to have expanded 13.54 times from 0.26 ha of 3 stands in 1977 to 3.52 ha of 17 stands in 2014. The annual expansion ratio of the whole area was estimated to be 1.073 ha･ha -1 ･year -1 , which was in the range (0.96-1.11) of those previously reported majorly for moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis). Among the 17 bamboo stands recognized in the aerial photography in 2014, 14 were identified as hachiku (P. nigra var. henonis) and 3 as madake (P. bambusoides) bamboos by the field surveys. The annual expansion ratios of individual stands that were comparable between 1977 and 2014 were 1.016, 1.056 (for 2 hachiku stands), and 1.036 (for 1 madake stand). These results imply that there are risks of range expansion of hachiku and madake bamboos even in cooler hilly 特集「竹林放置に関する問題とその対策」 長野県生坂村の無居住化地域における竹林拡大 -138 -and mountainous areas comparable to those of moso bamboo in western Japan.

Questions: Deer-proof fencing is an essential conservation tool to protect and recover plant species diversity in deer-overbrowsed ecosystems, including species-rich sub-alpine grasslands. However, community-level conservation tools (such as fencing) may be insufficient for single-species conservation, particularly for non-target endangered or rare species that are sparsely distributed. We examined whether fencing that can protect and recover total plant species richness also benefits nontarget endangered or rare species. Location: A sub-alpine semi-natural Kirigamine grassland in Nagano Prefecture, Japan. Methods: We conducted two complementary plant surveys (typical vegetation survey using 1-m 2 sampling units and flowering survey using 150-m 2 sampling units) to account for scarce species. We examined the community-level responses (species richness, flowering species richness, and flowering abundance) of all species and endangered or rare species and the species-level responses (occurrence and flowering abundance) of each species to deer fences. Results: Fencing benefited not only the community-level response of all species, but also that of endangered or rare species. As species-level responses, about half of 43 endangered or rare species had greater flowering abundance inside the fences than outside, but only three of them showed a positive effect on their occurrence. These results suggest that once an endangered or rare species has disappeared, it may be difficult to recover. Conclusions: Continued placement of deer fences is necessary to protect community-level plant species richness of sub-alpine endangered and rare species in deeroverbrowsed ecosystems. We also highlight the necessity of additional strategies focusing on non-target individual species across broad areas outside fences.