This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by *17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.

This paper quantifies the expected impacts of climate change, climate variability and salinity accumulation on food production in coastal Bangladesh during the dry season. This forms part of a concerted series of actions on agriculture and salinity in Bangladesh under the UK funded Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation programme and the British Council INSPIRE scheme. The work was undertaken by developing simulation models for soil water balances, dry season irrigation requirements and the effectiveness of the monsoon season rainfall at leaching accumulated salts. Simulations were run from 1981 to 2098 using historical climate data and a daily climate data set based on the Met Office Hadley Centre HadRM3P regional climate model. Results show that inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability are key factors that affect the viability of dry season vegetable crop growing. By the end of the 21(st) century the dry season is expected to be 2-3 weeks longer than now (2014). Monsoon rainfall amounts will remain the same or possibly slightly increase but it will occur over a slightly shorter wet season. Expectations of sea level rise and additional saline intrusion into groundwater aquifers mean that dry season irrigation water is likely to become more saline by the end of the 21(st) century. A study carried out at Barisal indicates that irrigating with water at up to 4 ppt can be sustainable. Once the dry season irrigation water quality goes above 5 ppt, the monsoon rainfall is no longer able to leach the dry season salt deposits so salt accumulation becomes significant and farm productivity will reduce by as a much as 50%, threatening the livelihoods of farmers in this region.

Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh Nicholls, R. J.; Hutton, C. W.; Lazar, A. N.; Allan, A.; Adger, W. N.; Adams, H.; Wolf, J.; Rahman, M.; Salehin, M. Published in:Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science DOI:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.017 Publication date: 2016 Document Version Peer reviewed version Link to publication in Discovery Research PortalCitation for published version (APA): Nicholls, R. J., Hutton, C. W., Lazar, A. N., Allan, A., Adger, W. N., Adams, H., ... Salehin, M. (2016). Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 183(B), 370-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.017 General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain.• You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Abstract: Deltas provide diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, with a range of drivers operating at multiple scales, from global climate change and sea-level rise to deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover change. These drivers threaten these ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. The imperative to maintain ecosystem services presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable and benefit all residents including the most vulnerable. Here we present an integrated framework to analyse changing ecosystem services in deltas and the implications for human well-being, focussing in particular on the provisioning ecosystem services of agriculture, inland and offshore capture fisheries, aquaculture and mangroves that directly support livelihoods. The framework is applied to the world's most populated delta, the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna Delta within Bangladesh. The framework adopts a systemic perspective to represent the principal biophysical and socioecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling and analyses of governance through scenario development. The approach is iterative, with learning both within the pro...

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest.

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