Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal grid cell spacing (Δ x) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100 – 1000 m). At these grid cell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation.

Long-duration localized heavy rainfall (> 6 h, < 10 km 2) was recorded by raingauges on October 4, 2013 at mid-elevations (∼ 1, 500 m) in the Peruvian Andes, which was not apparent in infrared or microwave measurements from either geostationary or polar orbiting satellites. This spring event is investigated here through a numerical modeling study using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model, and examined in the context of the climatology of Cold Air Intrusions (CAIs) along the eastern flanks of the tropical Andes. The model results suggest significant precipitation enhancement from intense shallow convection at the CAI frontal boundary amplified by orographic lifting as it propagates northward latched to the slopes of Andes. Analysis of CAI mesoscale dynamics was conducted using four decades of European Center Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data products, and rain-gauge observations with emphasis on characterizing year-round CAI frequency, CAI interactions with Andes topography, and their impact on orographic precipitation climatology. The data show a robust enhancement of the diurnal cycle of precipitation during CAI events in all seasons, and in particular increases in surface rainfall rate during early morning at intermediate elevations (∼ 1,500 m), that is the eastern Andes orographic maximum. This link between CAI frequency and rainfall suggests that they play an important role in maintaining the Andes to Amazon year-round terrestrial connectivity through runoff production and transport by the river networks.

Wind energy applications including wind resource assessment, wind power forecasting, and wind plant optimization require high-resolution mesoscale simulations. High resolution mesoscale simulations are essential for accurate characterization of atmospheric flows over heterogeneous land use and complex terrain. Under such conditions, the assumption of grid-cell homogeneity, used in one-dimensional planetary boundary layer (1D PBL) parameterizations, breaks down. However, in most numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, boundary layer turbulence is parameterized using 1D PBL parameterizations. We have therefore developed a three-dimensional (3D) PBL parameterization to better account for horizontal flow heterogeneities. We have implemented and tested the 3D PBL parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The new parameterization is validated using observations from the Wind Forecast Improvement 2 (WFIP 2) project and compared to 1D PBL results.

On 30 December 2021, the Marshall Fire devastated the Boulder, Colorado region. The fire initiated in fine fuels in open space just southeast of Boulder and spread rapidly due to the strong, downslope winds that penetrated into the Boulder Foothills. Despite the increasing occurrence of wildland-urban interface (WUI) disasters, many questions remain about how fires progress through vegetation and the built environment. To help answer these questions for the Marshall Fire, we use a coupled fireatmosphere model and Doppler on Wheels (DOW) observations to study the fire's progression as well as examine the physical drivers of its spread. Evaluation of the model using the DOW suggests that the model is able to capture general characteristics of the flow field; however, it does not produce as robust of a hydraulic jump as the one observed. Our results highlight limitations of the model that should be addressed for successful WUI simulations.