We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECD countries by estimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative prior based on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment benefits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust and Leeper (1997) critique. We find widespread hysteresis: demand shocks play a dominant role in explaining unemployment also in the medium‐run. Moreover real wages have low sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations and to labour market disequilibria. Our results emphasise the real power of the unions and their interactions with structural shocks and other institutions as crucial determinants of hysteresis.

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In this paper we examine how BVARs can be used for forecasting cointegrated variables. We propose an approach based on a Bayesian ECM model in which, contrary to the previous literature, the factor loadings are given informative priors. This procedure, applied to Italian macroeconomic series, produces more satisfactory forecasts than dierent prior speci®ca-tions or parameterizations. Providing an informative prior on the factor loadings is a crucial point: a¯at prior on the ECM terms combined with an informative prior on the lagged endogenous variables coecients gives too much importance to the long-run properties with respect to the short-run dynamics.

Tourism has the potential to protect natural and cultural assets upon which it depends; however, the growing number of travelers may pose burdens. Among the potential environmental externalities, solid waste production is an often overlooked factor, although the literature highlights it as one of tourism's most visible impacts on the environment. This paper aims to address the complex interdependence of tourism and waste generation using spatial models. The results showed a positive response of solid waste disposal at an increase in tourism flows. Due to the complexity of the topic, the research note calls for future research.