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Massimo GenoeseThe Merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany
AbstractThe German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers.
In this paper, we analyse the occurrence of negative electricity prices on the German day-ahead spot market for the years 2008 and 2009. An empirical analysis shows that either a low system load combined with a moderate wind generation or a moderate system load combined with a high wind generation is a neccessary condition for the appearence of negative prices. However, the linear correlation between the negative market prices and global variables that characterise the system status (system load, wind generation, net export, residual load) is relatively low - wind generation having the highest correlation (-0.42). By elaborating the actual volumes of renewable electricity that are traded on the spot market, a marginally better correlation can be achieved. Limited transparency in this field makes this type of market-oriented analysis difficult. We also find that the negative spot market prices cause higher capacity prices in the negative minute reserve market. The influence on the secondary reserve is less definite because of the long contracting periods in this market
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