Can consolidation policy be made consistent with macro-prudential supervision? In this study, we seek to provide new insights on this key-question using a network approach. We study how the resilience of a banking network evolves as we shock an initially homogenous competitive market with a sequence of M&A activities that significantly alter the topology of the network. We study how different M&A treatments impact on the structural vulnerabilities that can propagate through the system and we show that the severity of contagion and default dynamics depends on the chosen treatment. The desirability of alternative competitive settings (such as hub-centered market or a more concentrated and yet symmetric market) are assessed against an homogenous benchmark case and we show that the choice depends crucially on the size of the interbank market and the level of bank capitalization. The existence of a large highly connected hub is beneficial in a capitalized network with a well-developed interbank market but it can significantly weaken the system resilience in a poorly capitalized market. Antitrust and competition authorities shall adopt a state-contingent approach to M&A activities according to the market conditions in which banks operate.

Can the netting of on-balance-sheet interbank assets and liabilities be useful in thwarting financial contagion during a systemic crisis episode? In order to answer this question, in this paper we use mean-field approximation techniques and computer simulations to comparatively assess how contagion spreads out throughout an interbank network under different settlement modes. We find that a regulator forcing banks to net their credit/debt obligations instead of allowing them to regulate their mutual exposures on a gross basis succeeds in reducing the number of defaults and in preserving the aggregate amount of bank capital. Interbank netting takes its toll on retail depositors by increasing their potential losses, however. Hence, our analysis provides support for an optimal crisis-management policy mix that combines the enforcement of bilateral netting with a blanket deposit insurance scheme. The desirability of netting increases when the system is highly connected and susceptible to large shocks, especially when strains are first detected in banks located at the core of the network.We would like to thank, without implications, the participants to the 22nd Annual Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents and two anonymous referees for their helpful remarks and suggestions. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Italy.

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We study the relationships between firm financial structure and growth for a large sample of Italian firms (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003). We expand upon existing analyses testing whether liquidity constraints affect firm performance by considering among growth determinants also firm debt structure. Panel regression analyses show that more liquid firms tend to grow more. However, firms do not use their capital to expand, but rather to increase debt. We also find that firm growth is highly fragile as it is positively correlated with non-financial liabilities and it is not sustained by a long-term debt maturity. Finally, quantile regressions suggest that fast-growing firms are characterized by higher growth/cash-flow sensitivities and heavily rely on external debt, but seem to be less bank-backed than the rest of the sample. Overall, our findings suggest that the link between firms' investment and expansion decisions is far more complicated than postulated by standard tests of investment/cash-flow sensitivities.

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