In this paper, we discuss the challenges and the opportunities faced by developing countries that want to join the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). We first point out that the current discourse on 4IR is often based on poor understanding of the true nature of the phenomenon. Emphasising that many of the so-called 4IR technologies have been there and evolving rapidly in the last half a century, we argue that what defines 4IR is the fusion of these technologies. Given this, we argue, rather than trying to master particular 4IR technologies, developing countries should first focus on acquiring what we call the foundational capabilities, that is, the capabilities to learn new technical and organisational solutions and apply them in creative and flexible ways. Using this perspective, we then discuss in great detail how different 4IR technologies are re-shaping each industry and creating new industries through technological fusion, while discussing how these changes are affecting the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries for industrial development. We conclude the paper by discussing the implications of our findings for industrial policy in developing countries.

ResumoPesquisas econômicas sobre políticas industriais usualmente restringem-se a avaliar os efeitos dos impactos percebidos, relevando a influência de grupos de interesse na sua formulação e aplicação. Cientistas políticos estudam conflitos e acordos entre estes grupos, não os impactos das políticas. Mas, no caso da Lei de Informática, apenas a análise interdisciplinar de trabalhos de economistas e cientistas políticos possibilita compreender seus objetivos, impactos econômicos e as resistências à sua mudança. A Lei resulta, principalmente, de conflitos entre empresários da Zona Franca de Manaus e da Região Sudeste. Tal contexto deve ser observado no aprimoramento desta política industrial, em conjunto com as dimensões econômicas envolvidas. Palavras-chave |

This paper analyses recent industrial policy plans made by five leading countries: China, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and United States. This is done through the analysis of policy documents, using an original framework. Our analysis reveals that these policies have two main motivations. First, the acknowledgement of new technological opportunities and challenges, that allow not only for higher growth rates and competitiveness, but also for addressing ‘societal challenges’ (persistent socio-environmental problems). Second, the growing understanding that, because of the increasing complexity of innovation, private sector efforts alone are not enough, and a higher level of convergence between actors and institutions is needed. We also identify that the policy structures and proposed instruments of these strategies are quite conventional, which contrasts with the rhetoric of these policies. This reveals that the ‘resurgence’ of industrial policies is yet not a return to the ‘old’ policies of the twentieth century, but a new breed, which is much more cautious of interfering with market mechanisms.