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One of the main objectives of petroleum exploration consists of predicting reservoir location. Data collected in the basin are used to better understand the sedimentary architecture, but are usually insufficient to accurately characterize this architecture. Three-dimensional stratigraphic forward modeling has brought new insights in the understanding of sediment distribution. It gives the opportunity to investigate several geological models and to tackle reservoir presence probability. However, simulation time is a strong limitation to properly taking the uncertainties into account during operational studies. Here, we propose a methodology based on metamodels (or surrogate models) to perform sensitivity and risk analyses. The objective is to reduce the simulation time necessary to quantify the regional P r e l i m i n a r y V e r s i o n 2 impact of the input parameters and to estimate probability maps of reservoir presence. The approach consists of building functions that approximate the spatial outputs of the simulator (such as sediment thickness or net-to-gross distributions in the basin) and that are fast to evaluate. These functions are then called instead of the stratigraphic forward simulator for uncertainty quantification. The proposed methodology is applied to a three-dimensional synthetic case study, considering uncertainty on input parameters related to sediment transport, accommodation space and sediment supply. The sensitivity analysis quantifies in each location the influence of the parameters on the sediment distribution, which can help to better understand the role of each uncertain process on the basin architecture. In addition, probability maps of reservoir presence are estimated. The proposed approach is a promising trade-off between simulation time and information that can be inferred.

The Eastern Mediterranean Levant Basin is a proven hydrocarbon province with recent major gas discoveries. To date, no exploration wells targeted its northern part, in particular the Lebanese offshore. The present study assesses the tectono‐stratigraphic evolution and related petroleum systems of the northern Levant Basin via an integrated approach that combines stratigraphic forward modeling and petroleum systems/basin modeling based on the previous published work. Stratigraphic modeling results provide a best‐fit realisation of the basin‐scale sedimentary filling, from the post‐rift Upper Jurassic until the Pliocene. Simulation results suggest dominant eastern marginal and Arabian Plate sources for Cenozoic siliciclastic sediments and a significant contribution from the southern Nilotic source mostly from Lower Oligocene to Lower Miocene. Basin modeling results suggest the presence of a working thermogenic petroleum system with mature source rocks localised in the deeper offshore. The generated hydrocarbons migrated through the deep basin within Jurassic and Cretaceous permeable layers towards the Latakia Ridge in the north and the Levant margin and offshore topographic highs. Furthermore, the basin model indicates a possibly significant influence of salt deposition during Messinian salinity crisis on formation fluids. Ultimately, the proposed integrated workflow provides a powerful tool for the assessment of petroleum systems in underexplored areas.

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