With a predicted rise in global temperatures and a predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts by many climate scenarios (IPCC, 2013), the boreal forest would be the biome most strongly affected by global warming (Price et al., 2013). An increase of mean annual temperature between 4° and 11°C was projected across the boreal forest by the end of this century, adding to an already observed increase of 1.5°C during the past century (Gauthier
Climate change is having complex impacts on the boreal forest, modulating both tree growth limiting factors and fire regime. However, these aspects are usually projected independently when estimating climate change effect on the boreal forest. Using a combination of 3 different methods, our goal is to assess the combined impact of changes in growth and fire regime due to climate change on the timber supply at the transitions from closed to open boreal coniferous forests in Québec, Canada. In order to identify the areas that are likely to be the most sensitive to climate change, we projected climate-induced impacts on growth and fire activity at three different time periods: 2011-2040 RCP 8.5 for low growth change and minimum fire activity, 2071-2100 RCP 4.5 for moderate growth change and medium fire activity, and 2071-2100 RCP 8.5 for high growth change and maximum fire activity. Our study shows the importance of incorporating fire in strategic forest management planning especially in a context of climate change. Under the most extreme scenarios the negative impact of fire activity on productive area and total volume mostly offsets the positive effects of climate change via improved tree growth.
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