BackgroundHuman papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma is increasing in incidence worldwide. Current treatments are associated with high survival rates but often result in significant long-term toxicities. In particular, long-term dysphagia has a negative impact on patient quality of life and health. The aim of PATHOS is to determine whether reducing the intensity of adjuvant treatment after minimally invasive transoral surgery in this favourable prognosis disease will result in better long-term swallowing function whilst maintaining excellent disease-specific survival outcomes.Methods/DesignThe study is a multicentre phase II/III randomised controlled trial for patients with biopsy-proven Human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer staged T1-T3 N0-N2b with a primary tumour that is resectable via a transoral approach. Following transoral surgery and neck dissection, patients are allocated into three groups based on pathological risk factors for recurrence. Patients in the low-risk pathology group will receive no adjuvant treatment, as in standard practice. Patients in the intermediate-risk pathology group will be randomised to receive either standard dose post-operative radiotherapy (control) or reduced dose radiotherapy. Patients in the high-risk pathology group will be randomised to receive either post-operative chemoradiotherapy (control) or radiotherapy alone. The primary outcome of the phase II study is patient reported swallowing function measured using the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory score at 12 months post-treatment. If the phase II study is successful, PATHOS will proceed to a phase III non-inferiority trial with overall survival as the primary endpoint.DiscussionPATHOS is a prospective, randomised trial for Human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer, which represents a different disease entity compared with other head and neck cancers. The trial aims to demonstrate that long-term dysphagia can be lessened by reducing the intensity of adjuvant treatment without having a negative impact on clinical outcome. The study will standardise transoral surgery and post-operative intensity-modulated radiotherapy protocols in the UK and develop a gold-standard swallowing assessment panel. An associated planned translational research programme, underpinned by tumour specimens and sequential blood collected as part of PATHOS, will facilitate further empirical understanding of this new disease and its response to treatment.Trial registrationThis study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02215265.

This is the official guideline endorsed by the specialty associations involved in the care of head and neck cancer patients in the UK. There has been significant debate in the management of oropharyngeal cancer in the last decade, especially in light of the increased incidence, clarity on the role of the human papilloma virus in this disease and the treatment responsiveness of the human papilloma virus positive cancers. This paper discusses the evidence base pertaining to the management of oropharyngeal cancer and provides recommendations on management for this group of patients receiving cancer care.Recommendations• Cross-sectional imaging is required in all cases to complete assessment and staging. (R)• Magnetic resonance imaging is recommended for primary site and computed tomography scan for neck and chest. (R)• Positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography scanning is recommended for the assessment of response after chemoradiotherapy, and has a role in assessing recurrence. (R)• Examination under anaesthetic is strongly recommended, but not mandatory. (R)• Histological diagnosis is mandatory in most cases, especially for patients receiving treatment with curative intent. (R)• Oropharyngeal carcinoma histopathology reports should be prepared according to The Royal College of Pathologists Guidelines. (G)• Human papilloma virus (HPV) testing should be carried out for all oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas as recommended in The Royal College of Pathologists Guidelines. (R)• Human papilloma virus testing for oropharyngeal cancer should be performed within a diagnostic service where the laboratory procedures and reporting standards are quality assured. (G)• Treatment options for T1–T2 N0 oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma include radical radiotherapy or transoral surgery and neck dissection (with post-operative (chemo)radiotherapy if there are adverse pathological features on histological examination). (R)• Transoral surgery is preferable to open techniques and is associated with good functional outcomes in retrospective series. (R)• If treated surgically, neck dissection should include levels II–IV and possibly level I. Level IIb can be omitted if there is no disease in level IIa. (R)• If treated with radiotherapy, levels II–IV should be included, and possibly level Ib in selected cases. (R)• Altering the modalities of treatment according to HPV status is currently controversial and should be undertaken only in clinical trials. (R)• Where possible, patients should be offered the opportunity to enrol in clinical trials in the field. (G)

Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with thyroid cancer (TC) risk have been reported: rs2910164 (5q24); rs6983267 (8q24); rs965513 and rs1867277 (9q22); and rs944289 (14q13). Most of these associations have not been replicated in independent populations and the combined effects of the SNPs on risk have not been examined. This study genotyped the five TC SNPs in 781 patients recruited through the TCUKIN study. Genotype data from 6122 controls were obtained from the CORGI and Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium studies. Significant associations were detected between TC and rs965513A (p=6.35×10−34), rs1867277A (p=5.90×10−24), rs944289T (p=6.95×10−7), and rs6983267G (p=0.016). rs6983267 was most strongly associated under a recessive model (PGG vs GT + TT=0.004), in contrast to the association of this SNP with other cancer types. However, no evidence was found of an association between rs2910164 and disease under any risk model (p>0.7). The rs1867277 association remained significant (p=0.008) after accounting for genotypes at the nearby rs965513 (p=2.3×10−13) and these SNPs did not tag a single high risk haplotype. The four validated TC SNPs accounted for a relatively large proportion (∼11%) of the sibling relative risk of TC, principally owing to the large effect size of rs965513 (OR 1.74).

Background: Estimates of life expectancy are a key input to cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models for cancer treatments. Due to the limited follow-up in Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs), parametric models are frequently used to extrapolate survival outcomes beyond the RCT period. However, different parametric models that fit the RCT data equally well may generate highly divergent predictions of treatment-related gain in life expectancy. Here, we investigate the use of information external to the RCT data to inform model choice and estimation of life expectancy. Methods: We used Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis to combine the RCT data with external information on general population survival, conditional survival from cancer registry databases, and expert opinion. We illustrate with a 5-year follow-up RCT of cetuximab plus radiotherapy v. radiotherapy alone for head and neck cancer. Results: Standard survival time distributions were insufficiently flexible to simultaneously fit both the RCT data and external data on general population survival. Using spline models, we were able to estimate a model that was consistent with the trial data and all external data. A model integrating all sources achieved an adequate fit and predicted a 4.7-month (95% CrL: 0.4; 9.1) gain in life expectancy due to cetuximab. Conclusions: Long-term extrapolation using parametric models based on RCT data alone is highly unreliable and these models are unlikely to be consistent with external data. External data can be integrated with RCT data using spline models to enable long-term extrapolation. Conditional survival data could be used for many cancers and general population survival may have a role in other conditions. The use of external data should be guided by knowledge of natural history and treatment mechanisms.