Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.
Summary1. Adult survival rates strongly affect population growth, but few studies have quantified if and why adult survival differs between breeding habitats. We investigated potential causes of habitatspecific adult survival rates for male and female northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe L.) breeding in Swedish farmland. 2. We used multistate mark-recapture models based on 1263 breeding records between 1993 and 2007 to estimate survival rates based on habitat-type (SHORT vs. TALL ground vegetation) and breeding-success state parameters. We also used breeding-season observations from 2002 to 2007 and an experimental manipulation of ground vegetation height to identify factors influencing adult mortality. 3. Females had lower annual survival than males (0AE42 ± 0AE02 vs. 0AE50 ± 0AE02); this difference largely resulted from low female survival in TALL habitats because of higher nest-predation risk and the large proportion of adult females being killed on the nest (>20%) during nest predation events. 4. Among successful breeders, both sexes displayed similar survival rates, but survival was lower for breeders in TALL as compared to SHORT habitats (0AE43 ± 0AE03 vs. 0AE51 ± 0AE02). Experimental manipulation of ground vegetation height, controlling for individual and territory quality (n = 132), suggested the cost of rearing young to be higher in TALL habitats (survival of successful breeders in TALL vs. SHORT; 0AE43 ± 0AE11 vs. 0AE57 ± 0AE05). 5. Detailed observations of food provisioning behaviour during chick rearing revealed a habitatrelated difference in parental workload corresponding to the observed habitat differences in adult survival for successful breeders. Adults breeding in TALL habitats were forced to forage further from the nest relative to SHORT-habitat breeders (mean ± SE; 69 ± 10 vs. 21 ± 2 m), which increased the estimated daily workload for adults in TALL vs. SHORT habitats by c. 20%. 6. On-nest predation and parental workload during chick rearing combine to largely explain habitat-specific adult survival rates. The results have implications for our understanding of adult sex ratios, causes of source-sink demography and habitat-specific growth rates. Furthermore, it suggests SHORT field margins and other residual habitat elements to be important for the conservation of farmland passerines breeding in cropland plains.
Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer-term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long-term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer-term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.
Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. Although it is claimed that over 95% of scientists in evolution and ecology believe data should be 131 publicly archived [1], mandatory public data archiving (PDA) is raising many issues in the scientific 132 community as evidenced by debates on websites, in blogs and publications [2-10]. Here we focus on the 133 perspective from long-term individual-based studies of wild populations that often span several 134 decades. 135Short and long-term ecological studies differ in several important aspects. For example, in the former, 136 data tend to be collected over a short period of time for one or two papers and once published the data 137 in these papers become less valuable to the collector and can be more useful to others with different 138 perspectives or analytical skills. In contrast, in studies that have followed individuals over their lifetimes, 139 a lot of crucial information is assessed from derived metrics (e.g. survival, lifetime reproductive success) 140 that can only be estimated after many years of fieldwork. Therefore, much value can remain in the 141 primary data even after some of the initial questions are answered. 142Long-term studies are rare and have great scientific value since many important questions in ecology 143 and evolutionary biology can only be answered from the life histories of recognizable individuals [11]. A 144 detailed analysis of the importance of individual-based studies has been documented elsewhere [11], 145 but a few examples are given in Box 1. 146While group discussions and blog posts on PDA related issues have been flourishing, little is formally 147 known and published about the position and concerns of people collecting long-term data. To fill this 148 gap, a survey was conducted to learn their perspectives, and if current data requirements were 149 perceived as problematic, to identify potential alternative data-sharing policies that could be acceptable 150 to the journals, the scientific community and the Principal investigators. 151 152 The survey 153To obtain the opinions of scientists with individual-based longitudinal data, a worldwide survey was sent 154 to 146 PIs of long-term research projects. Responses were received from 73 PIs working on 59 bird 155 studies, 13 mammalian studies and 1 plant study. The 92 projects (some PIs have several projects) range 156 in duration from 5 to 68 years ( Figure 1), with 55 percent collecting data for more than 30 years. Thirty-157 five percent of researchers were required to archive data used in a publication by their current funding 158 agency and 19% by their institution. Eight researchers were required to deposit data by both; therefore 159 59% were not required to archive their data. There was diversity of opinion among PIs about data 160 archiving, but some strong points of consens...
The emerging insects-as-food industry is increasingly promoted as a sustainable alternative to other animal protein production systems. However, the exact nature of its environmental benefits are uncertain because of the overwhelming lack of knowledge concerning almost every aspect of production: from suitable species, their housing and feed requirements, and potential for accidental release. If ecological sustainability is to be a hallmark of mass insect rearing for consumption, ecologists need to engage in research related to sustainability criteria that are directly linked to key elements of the development of the industry. There is more to this subject than simply comparing feed-conversion ratios (FCRs) of insects to traditional livestock production, and we highlight areas where research needs to be immediately focused.
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