Bacteria of the genus Wolbachia are among the most common endosymbionts in the world. In many insect species these bacteria induce a sperm-egg incompatibility between the gametes of infected males and uninfected females, commonly called unidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). It is generally believed that unidirectional CI cannot promote speciation in hosts because infection differences between populations will be unstable and subsequent gene flow will eliminate genetic differences between diverging populations. In the present study we investigate this question theoretically in a mainland-island model with migration from mainland to island. Our analysis shows that (a) the infection polymorphism is stable below a critical migration rate, (b) an (initially) uninfected “island” can better maintain divergence at a selected locus (e.g. can adapt locally) in the presence of CI, and (c) unidirectional CI selects for premating isolation in (initially) uninfected island populations if they receive migration from a Wolbachia-infected mainland. Interestingly, premating isolation is most likely to evolve if levels of incompatibility are intermediate and if either the infection causes fecundity reductions or Wolbachia transmission is incomplete. This is because under these circumstances an infection pattern with an infected mainland and a mostly uninfected island can persist in the face of comparably high migration. We present analytical results for all three findings: (a) a lower estimation of the critical migration rate in the presence of local adaptation, (b) an analytical approximation for the gene flow reduction caused by unidirectional CI, and (c) a heuristic formula describing the invasion success of mutants at a mate preference locus. These findings generally suggest that Wolbachia-induced unidirectional CI can be a factor in divergence and speciation of hosts.

Wolbachia are intracellular, maternally inherited bacteria that are widespread among arthropods and commonly induce a reproductive incompatibility between infected male and uninfected female hosts known as unidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). If infected and uninfected populations occur parapatrically, CI acts as a post‐zygotic isolation barrier. We investigate the stability of such infection polymorphisms in a mathematical model with two populations linked by migration. We determine critical migration rates below which infected and uninfected populations can coexist. Analytical solutions of the critical migration rate are presented for mainland‐island models. These serve as lower estimations for a more general model with two‐way migration. The critical migration rate is positive if either Wolbachia causes a fecundity reduction in infected female hosts or its transmission is incomplete, and is highest for intermediate levels of CI. We discuss our results with respect to local adaptations of the Wolbachia host, speciation, and pest control.

Background: Various methods exist for statistical inference about a prevalence that consider misclassifications due to an imperfect diagnostic test. However, traditional methods are known to suffer from truncation of the prevalence estimate and the confidence intervals constructed around the point estimate, as well as from under-performance of the confidence intervals' coverage. Methods: In this study, we used simulated data sets to validate a Bayesian prevalence estimation method and compare its performance to frequentist methods, i.e. the Rogan-Gladen estimate for prevalence, RGE, in combination with several methods of confidence interval construction. Our performance measures are (i) error distribution of the point estimate against the simulated true prevalence and (ii) coverage and length of the confidence interval, or credible interval in the case of the Bayesian method. Results: Across all data sets, the Bayesian point estimate and the RGE produced similar error distributions with slight advantages of the former over the latter. In addition, the Bayesian estimate did not suffer from the RGE's truncation problem at zero or unity. With respect to coverage performance of the confidence and credible intervals, all of the traditional frequentist methods exhibited strong under-coverage, whereas the Bayesian credible interval as well as a newly developed frequentist method by Lang and Reiczigel performed as desired, with the Bayesian method having a very slight advantage in terms of interval length. Conclusion: The Bayesian prevalence estimation method should be prefered over traditional frequentist methods. An acceptable alternative is to combine the Rogan-Gladen point estimate with the Lang-Reiczigel confidence interval.

We investigated trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in poultry between 2010 and 2016 in Germany and their association with antimicrobial use. Campylobacter had been isolated from the caeca of broilers and turkeys at slaughter by regional laboratories according to current ISO methods in the framework of a national monitoring program. Isolates were submitted to the National Reference Laboratory for Campylobacter and tested for AMR using broth microdilution methods. Minimum inhibitory concentrations were evaluated according to epidemiological cut-off values. Antimicrobial use (AMU) data from 2014 to 2016 were taken from a government report. AMR was higher in C. coli than in C. jejuni and higher in turkeys than in broilers. AMR was highest to tetracycline and the tested (fluoro)quinolones while it was rare to gentamicin in both bacterial species, infrequent to erythromycin in C. jejuni, and moderate in C. coli. AMR to tetracycline and erythromycin decreased over time while it increased to (fluoro)quinolones. An association of AMU and AMR was observed for resistance to tetracycline and erythromycin, while it was not observed for the aminoglycosides. Resistance to nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin increased despite a decrease of fluoroquinolone use between 2014 and 2016, indicating that other factors have a strong influence on resistance to (fluoro)quinolones in Campylobacter.

The import of products of animal origin (POAO) in travellers’ personal consignments presents a considerable risk of introducing animal diseases and emerging zoonoses into the European Union. The current regulation (EU) 206/2009 implements strict measures for illegally imported POAO, whereupon non-complying products have to be seized and destroyed regardless. Especially airports serve as global bottlenecks for illegally imported POAO where passenger controls of non-European flights are performed by customs and veterinary services in collaboration. Results of these control measures have to be submitted in the form of annual reports to the European Commission. However, few data on qualities and quantities of seizures have been published so far. In this study, POAO seized at two German airports between 2010 and 2014 were analysed in terms of quantities, qualitative categories and region of origin. In most years considered, more than 20 tonnes POAO were seized at each airport. However, reported amounts of seizures seem to be only the tip of the iceberg as an all-passenger control is not feasible and therefore travellers are only spot-checked. The analysis suggests that the organisational structures of both customs and official veterinary services and their different risk perceptions interfere in completing an effective ban on the illegal import of POAO.