Abstract

In this article, we explore the capability of speculative fiction to predict future realized technologies. We review a large set of speculative technologies introduced in speculative fiction to determine if the technologies were subsequently realized. Additionally, we explore the time between the speculated introduction and actual realization. Our dataset for analysis is built from the ‘Technovelgy’ database of speculative technologies. A realization assessment methodology is created that includes detailed rubrics to rate and quantify the predictability or realizability of speculative technologies. Three independent raters perform realization assessments for each entry. An inter-rater agreement analysis is carried out to validate the rating method. Based on the dataset of 3095 speculated technologies, 45% are labeled as ‘realized’ by at least one rater. A moderate overall agreement with a Fleiss’ Kappa of 0.57 is reached by all raters. The average time to realization of realized technologies is approximately 45 years with a standard deviation of approximately 34 years. We observe patterns in the realization of speculative technologies and analyze the underlying reasons preventing the technologies from realization. We conclude that speculative fiction predicts future technologies to such a degree that the introduction of speculative technology can be used as an input to designer decision-making.

The objective of this work is to position speculative fiction as a broader framework to stimulate, facilitate, and study engineering design ideation. For this, we first present a comprehensive and detailed review of the literature on how fiction, especially science fiction, has played a role in design and decision-making. To further strengthen the need for speculative fiction for idea stimulation, we further prototype and study a prototype workflow that utilizes excerpts from speculative fiction books as textual stimuli for design ideation. Through a qualitative study of this workflow, we gain insights on the effect of textual stimuli from science fiction narratives on design concepts. Our study reveals that the texts either closely related to the problem or consisting of the terms from the design statement boost the idea generation process. We further discover that less directly related stimuli may encourage out-of-the-box and divergent thinking. Using the insights gained from our study, we pose critical questions to initiate speculative fiction-based design ideation as a new research direction in engineering design. Subsequently, we discuss current research directions and domains that will be necessary to take the technical, technological, and methodological steps needed for future research on design methodologies based on speculative-fictional inspiration. Finally, we present a practical case to demonstrate how an engineering design workflow could be operationalized by investigating a concrete example of the design of automotive user interfaces (automotive-UI) through the lens of speculative fiction.

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