Since the run-up to the great recession, there has been a significant degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries both in terms of interest rates and in the composition of monetary assets. In order to account for the heterogeneity of monetary assets within and across member countries, we propose a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area. In line with earlier evidence obtained for the United States, our results from a panel probit analysis show that the divergence between the Divisia and the simple sum aggregate has a significant predictive content for recessions in euro area countries.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.