We summarize ongoing efforts at the Canadian Forest Service to produce spatial climate models for Canada and the United States. Our models, which encompass a wide range of variables and spatiotemporal extents, typically employ thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate and extrapolate climate station values as a function of latitude, longitude and elevation. The resulting surfaces can be resolved as grids (i.e., maps) or as point estimates at locations of interest. Recent efforts, detailed here include: updated models for the most recent 30-year normal period (i.e., 1981–2010), moisture balance models, future climate projections using the latest round of general circulation model (GCM) outputs and emissions scenarios, lake ice freeze/thaw models, and growing season models. These models are available to the Canadian forest community and beyond via the internet ( http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/projects/3 ) or by contacting the senior author.
We outline the major steps involved in implementing assisted migration (AM) and assess, in a general way, the capacity to carry out each step in Canadian forests. Our findings highlight the fact that capacity to implement AM differs between forest species; in particular, the existence of established provenance trials, seed transfer guidelines, seed procurement systems, and plantation establishment protocols makes AM considerably more feasible for most commercial tree species than for most species of conservation concern. We report on several AM efforts involving commercial tree species that are already underway in Canada and identify a number of initiatives that could be undertaken to help build AM capacity. This paper is not intended as an endorsement of the AM approach; however, we feel there is considerable value in discussing implementation issues at this point in the AM debate.
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