Background
Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.
Objectives
Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.
Methods
We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.
Results
The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.
Conclusion
Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.
Tissue Banking and Biomaterial Research Unit (TBBRU), the only tissue bank of Bangladesh, has been established to create an available supply of human tissue allografts for transplantation in Bangladesh. Since its establishment in 2003, TBBRU strictly follows the guidelines of tissue banking setup by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the European Association of Tissue Banks and the American Association of Tissue Banks. Though started serving from earlier, regular supply of tissue allografts from this bank were documented at the end of 2006. From January 2007 to December 2014, 3747 bones and 5772 amniotic sacs were collected from live tissue donors. During this period, 59,489 cc bone allografts and 23,472 pieces of amniotic membrane allografts were processed. In the same period, 58,483 cc bone allografts and 20,786 pieces membrane were supplied to different hospitals throughout the country on the basis of demand. The outcomes of the concerted efforts of tissue banking professionals and physicians were the restoration of health and hope of 3662 patients during the last 8 years.
Bangladesh has been combating the COVID-19 pandemic with limited financial resources and poor health infrastructure since March, 2020. Although the government has imposed several restricted measures to curb the progression of the outbreak, these arrays of measures are not sustainable in the long run. In this paper, we use a data-driven forecasting model considering susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and deaths status through time to assess the impact of lift of flexible lockdown on the COVID-19 dynamics in Bangladesh. Our analysis demonstrates that the country might experience second infection peak in six to seven months after the withdrawal of current lockdown. Moreover, a prolonged restrictions until January, 2021 will shift the infection peak towards August, 2021 and reduce approximately 20% COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh.
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