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Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) often starts as a paroxysmal self-terminating arrhythmia. Limited information is available on AF patterns and episode duration of paroxysmal AF. In paroxysmal AF patients, we longitudinally studied the temporal AF patterns, the association with clinical characteristics, and prevalence of AF progression. Methods and results In this interim analysis of the Reappraisal of AF: Interaction Between HyperCoagulability, Electrical Remodelling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF (RACE V) registry, 202 patients with paroxysmal AF were followed with continuous rhythm monitoring (implantable loop recorder or pacemaker) for 6 months. Mean age was 64 ± 9 years, 42% were women. Atrial fibrillation history was 2.1 (0.5–4.4) years, CHA2DS2-VASc 1.9 ± 1.3, 101 (50%) had hypertension, 69 (34%) heart failure. One-third had no AF during follow-up. Patients with long episodes (>12 hours) were often men with more comorbidities (heart failure, coronary artery disease, higher left ventricular mass). Patients with higher AF burden (>2.5%) were older with more comorbidities (worse renal function, higher calcium score, thicker intima media thickness). In 179 (89%) patients, 1-year rhythm follow-up was available. On a quarterly basis, average daily AF burden increased from 3.2% to 3.8%, 5.2%, and 6.1%. Compared to the first 6 months, 111 (62%) patients remained stable during the second 6 months, 39 (22%) showed progression to longer AF episodes, 8 (3%) developed persistent AF, and 29 (16%) patients showed AF regression. Conclusions In paroxysmal AF, temporal patterns differ suggesting that paroxysmal AF is not one entity. Atrial fibrillation burden is low and determined by number of comorbidities. Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in a substantial number. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02726698.

ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to more permanent forms. To improve personalised medicine, we aim to develop a new AF progression risk prediction model in patients with PAF.MethodsIn this interim-analysis of the Reappraisal of AF: Interaction Between HyperCoagulability, Electrical Remodelling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF study, patients with PAF undergoing extensive phenotyping at baseline and continuous rhythm monitoring during follow-up of ≥1 year were analysed. AF progression was defined as (1) progression to persistent or permanent AF or (2) progression of PAF with >3% burden increase. Multivariable analysis was done to identify predictors of AF progression.ResultsMean age was 65 (58–71) years, 179 (43%) were female. Follow-up was 2.2 (1.6–2.8) years, 51 of 417 patients (5.5%/year) showed AF progression. Multivariable analysis identified, PR interval, impaired left atrial function, mitral valve regurgitation and waist circumference to be associated with AF progression. Adding blood biomarkers improved the model (C-statistic from 0.709 to 0.830) and showed male sex, lower levels of factor XIIa:C1-esterase inhibitor and tissue factor pathway inhibitor, and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 and peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 were associated with AF progression.ConclusionIn patients with PAF, AF progression occurred in 5.5%/year. Predictors for progression included markers for atrial remodelling, sex, mitral valve regurgitation, waist circumference and biomarkers associated with coagulation, inflammation, cardiomyocyte stretch and atherosclerosis. These prediction models may help to determine risk of AF progression and treatment targets, but validation is needed.Trial registration numberNCT02726698.

AimsObesity is an increasing health problem and is an important risk factor for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the association of body mass index (BMI) on the safety and long-term efficacy of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for drug-refractory AF.Methods414 consecutive patients who underwent transcatheter PVI for AF between 2003 and 2013 were included. Successful PVI was defined as absence of atrial arrhythmia on Holter monitoring or ECG, without and with antiarrhythmic drugs during follow-up. Obesity was defined as BMI≥30 kg/m².ResultsMean age was 56±10 years, 316 (76%) were male, 311 (75%) had paroxysmal AF and 111 (27%) were obese. After a mean follow-up of 46±32 months (1590 patient-years), freedom from atrial arrhythmia and antiarrhythmic drugs was significantly lower in patients with obesity compared with non-obese patients (30% vs 46%, respectively, P=0.005, log-rank 0.016). With antiarrhythmic drugs, freedom from atrial arrhythmia was 56% vs 68% (P=0.036). No differences in minor and major adverse events were observed between patients with obesity and non-obese patients (major 6% vs 3%, P=0.105, and minor 5% vs 5%, P=0.512). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that BMI (as continuous variable) was associated with PVI outcome (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.14, P=0.012).ConclusionObesity is associated with reduced efficacy of PVI for drug-refractory AF. No relation between obesity and adverse events was found.