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This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey's trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey's trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey's OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.

Addressing the geographical relocation of the pollution-intensive gray side of low-carbon green production, our study analyzes potential determinants of green and gray growth performance of industrialized/developed countries (IDCs) and industrializing/ emerging economies (IEEs) over the 1996-2015 period. We define green growth by low-carbon output, while we link gray growth to comparative advantages of pollution havens. Green and gray growth models include such predictors as domestic income and foreign direct investment (FDI) together with composite indices for globalization, environmental policy stringency (EPS), industrialization, and control of corruption. Considering non-stationarity, cross-section dependency, endogeneity, and heterogeneity concerns, we employ bootstrap and residual-based cointegration analyses followed by long-run estimations using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators and causality examination through Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Emirmahmutoglu-Kose tests. The key findings of the study are as follows: (i) income is positively associated with green growth for both IEEs and IDCs, whereas the income-gray growth nexus is negative for IEEs. (ii) Although inward FDI stocks are positively related to green and gray growth of IEEs and outward FDI stocks are negatively associated with green and gray growth of IDCs, these relationships are mediated by EPS. (iii) Globalization encourages both green and gray growth for IDCs. (iv) Even though EPS inhibits green growth and encourage gray growth in IEEs, these direct effects widely depend on the indirect effects of control of corruption. (v) IEEs' higher gray growth performance is substantially explained by their increased industrial competitiveness, whereas the link is negative for IDCs. (vi) Control of corruption fosters both green and gray growth in IEEs. Overall, "growing gray" does not necessarily mean "not growing green" and vice versa. Globally, the low-carbon benefits of greening countries may be counterbalanced by the environmental costs of graying economies. From a policy perspective, IEEs need to reinforce environmental policies by green efficiency, green industrialization, and anti-corruption plans to decouple economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions.

ÖZETBu çalışmada Türkiye'de ihracat performansı ile reel efektif döviz kuru değişmeleri arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler, 1995-2012 dönemi üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. İhracat performansını etkilemesi beklenen ücret, yurtdışı gelir, verimlilik, GSYH trendi ve döviz kuru oynaklığı gibi başka faktörler de modele eklenmiştir. Çalışmanın analiz kısmında ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı izlenmiş ve tahmin edilen ARDL modellerine göre değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri araştırılmıştır. Ulaşılan sonuçlar, incelenen değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. İhracat performansına ilişkin olarak, teorik beklentilerin aksine, reel efektif döviz kuru katsayılarının anlamlı bir biçimde kısa dönemde pozitif uzun dönemde ise negatif olduğu ve döviz kuru oynaklığının anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Diğer bulgular, Türkiye'de ele alınan dönemde yaşanan ihracat artışlarının döviz kuru değişmelerinden çok ücret, verimlilik ve yurtdışı talep ile açıklanabileceğini göstermektedir. Buna göre sonuç olarak, Türkiye'de ücretleri baskı altında tutan, verimlilik artışını teşvik eden ve yurtdışı piyasalara girmeyi kolaylaştıran politikaların, ihracat sektörlerinde performans ve rekabet artışları sağlayabileceği görülmektedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: İhracat hacmi, ihracat performansı, ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı, Türkiye. ABSTRACTIn this study the short and the long run relationships between export performance and real effective exchange rate changes in Turkey are investigated using the quarterly data sets covering the period of 1995-2012. The other factors that are expected to affect export performance such as wage, foreign income, productivity, trend GDP and exchange rate volatility are also added to the model. The ARDL bounds testing approach is performed in the estimation process and the causalities among these variables in the model are determined based on the estimated ARDL models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real effective exchange rate coefficient is significantly positive in the short run whereas negative in the long run and exchange rate volatility has no significant effect on export performance in contrast with theoretical expectations. Other evidences indicate that Turkey's export boom in the period examined can be explained by wages, productivity and world demand, rather than exchange rate changes. Consequently, these findings highlight that the policies depressing wages, stimulating high productivity and facilitating foreign market access can help export sectors increase their performance and competitiveness in Turkey.