Tropical cyclones may be destructive in the coastal region, such as the Gonu tropical cyclone, which affected the Arabian Peninsula and parts of southern Iran in 2007. In this study, a coupled MIKE 21/3 HD/SW (hydrodynamic/spectral wave) model was used to simulate the inland flooding inside the Sur port during the Gonu tropical cyclone. The MIKE 21 Cyclone Wind Generation (CWG) tool was utilized to generate the cyclone’s wind and pressure field. The required input data were obtained from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and imported into the CWG tool. In this study, the wind and pressure fields were compared between the analytical vortex model and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data during the Gonu cyclone passage. Moreover, by developing a new model, artificial Mangroves’ effect on inland flooding was investigated. The results show that, contrary to the ECMWF data, the analytical vortex models well captured the storm event’s wind and pressure field. Furthermore, the flood hazard is calculated based on the inundation depth, flow velocity, and area’s vulnerability. The flood hazard map shows that 5% of the coast is at high-risk, 49% is at medium-risk, and 46% is at low-risk class in the Sur port. By applying Mangroves as flood risk reduction, the high-risk area is almost completely removed. However, medium and low-risk zones increase by 50% and 50%, respectively. This information could be helpful in disaster risk reduction and coastal management in the future.
In coastal and port engineering, wind-generated waves have always been a crucial, fundamental, and important topic. As a result, various methods for estimating wave parameters, including field measurement and numerical methods, have been proposed over time. This study evaluates the wave height at Sri-Lanka Hambantota Port using soft computing models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the M5 model tree (M5MT). In order to overcome its nonstationarity, the primary wave height time series were divided into subtime series using the wavelet transform. The collected subtime series were then utilized as input data for ANN and M5MT in order to determine the wave height. For the sake of the model performance, the daily wind and wave data from the Acoustic Wave and Current (AWAC) sensor for Hambantota Port in 2020 and Sanmen Bay in 2017 were used in this study. The training state utilizes 80% of the available data, while the test state uses 20%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the ANN, M5, WANN, and Wavelet-M5 models in the Hambantota Port for the test stage are 0.12, 0.11, 0.04, and 0.06, respectively. While in Sanmen Bay, the RMSE of the ANN, M5, WANN, and Wavelet-M5 models for the test stage are 0.14, 0.16, 0.06, and 0.08, respectively. According to the findings of this study, the accuracy of WANN and Wavelet-M5 hybrid models in evaluating wave height is superior to that of classic ANN and M5MT, and it is recommended that WANN and Wavelet-M5 hybrid models be used to estimate wave height.
In this study, the wave conditions in the Arabian Sea induced by tropical cyclone Kyarr (2019) have been simulated by employing the 3rd generation wave model MIKE 21 SW. The model was run from 24 October to 1 November 2019, a total of 8 days. The MIKE 21 SW model was forced by reanalyzed ERA5 wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results are compared with buoy data from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), which is located at 67.44° E, 18.50° N. In addition, the satellite altimeter data (CryoSat-2, SARAL and Jason-3 satellite altimeter data) was utilized for validation. Three wave parameters are considered for the validation: the significant wave height; the peak wave period; and the mean wave direction. The validation results showed that the significant wave height, the peak wave period, and the mean wave direction could be reasonably predicted by the model and reanalysis wind data as input. The maximum significant wave height reached to 10.7 m (with an associated peak wave period of 12.5 s) on 28 October 2019 at 23:00:00 in the middle of the Arabian Sea. For coastal areas, the significant wave height along the Iran and Pakistan (north Arabian Sea) coasts increased to a range of 1.4–2.8 m when tropical cyclone Kyarr moved northward. This wave height along with elevated sea level may cause severe coastal erosion and nearshore inland flooding. Impacts of cyclones on coastal zones critical facilities and infrastructure can be reduced by timely and suitable action before the event, so coastal managers should understand the effect of cyclones and their destructive consequences. The validated model developed in this study may be utilized as input data of evaluating the risk to life and infrastructure in this area.
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