The term advertising refers to the strategy that affects consumer behaviour and induces higher household final consumption expenditure (HFCE), which is associated with incredibly demanding for money upon transaction usages and a reduction in search costs. The model of money demand that is stable, reliable and well defined is crucial for central banks in formulating their monetary policy to minimise the gap between the supply and demand of money. Hence, this paper examines the influence of expenditure in advertising (ADEX) towards the level of demand for money among the households in Russia. An approach known as Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) is opted to model the money demand function (MDF) of Russia and nine years of quarterly data from 2008 to 2016 have been used in the estimation. Empirical findings reveal that ADEX not only positively influences the Russian’s money demand in long term, its MDF also becomes more superior when the ADEX has been added. As such, this study suggests that ADEX can be taken into account as a non-traditional explanatory variable in the formulation of a stable and well-specified MDF for the case in Russia.
This paper scrutinised the impact of economic uncertainty on the broad money demand in South Africa using quarterly data from 2001 to 2018. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is employed to capture the volatilities of selected components in order to construct an economic uncertainty index (EUI) for South Africa. The constructed index is then used as a regressor along with real income, interest rate and exchange rate in determining South African demand for broad money. The empirical finding 124 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach notably shows that the EUI is negatively affecting South Africa's demand for broad money in the long term. This reveals that economic agents tend to hold real or safer assets than riskier assets, thus reduce broad money demand during times of heightened economy in South Africa. The model is cointegrated in the long-run and stable with the inclusion of EUI in the broad money demand function for South Africa. The findings are able to assist policy makers in using suitable determinants as stabilisation tools and targeting a more effective monetary policy framework refined by appropriate monetary aggregates in South Africa.
Crude oil, as the most traded commodity in the world, exhibits prices with a clear influence on other commodities in the worldwide market. It also poses implications regarding the economic growth of oil-exporting and oil-importing nations. This study provides an unprecedented method of employing the indicator approach as proposed by the Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, to construct a leading indicator for the global crude oil price. The results reveal that the constructed oil price indicator can predict the cyclical movement of the oil price by moving in advance of 3.5 months on average. This finding could provide better signaling to oil-related nations as well as other commodities that consider crude oil to be a leader in the market.
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