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In order to assess the management success of river rehabilitation measurements it is necessary to have representative target species and objective statistical methods. In this study we, tested the validity of habitat suitability models for the riparian carabid beetle Bembidion velox in the evaluation of river bank management along the River Elbe, Germany. On the basis of seven independent data sets from different sites and years we have proven the robustness of logistic regression models with respect to their explanatory and predictive power and their applicability in the field. All models had robust explanatory power and described a strong association of B. velox with semi-terrestrial sandy open soil habitats. Transfers of model results for adult beetles to their larvae and vice versa were highly significant with ''sand content'' and ''stem distance'' as the main habitat factors for both life stages. To broaden the local explanatory power towards general predictions we performed model cross-validation in space and time. Spatial transfers produced models with excellent discrimination properties, measured by Area Under Curve (AUC) values of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) plots, independent of sampling designs and trapping methodology. However, the applicability of habitat models for B. velox is defined by the validity period, as the availability of suitable habitats for this species is highly temporally variable and dependent on water level. Model transfers between species also demonstrated that the chosen target species is representative for carabids with similar distribution patterns, as the single species model had high predictive power for the occurrence of a multi-species carabid group.

1. Knowledge of the ecology of carabid species is largely restricted to adults, although larval mortality is assumed to be the key factor in overall mortality. As low-mobility larvae are unable to avoid unfavourable conditions, habitat selection of reproducing adults should be clearly affected by the habitat factors which determine offspring performance.2. The present study examines the key habitat factors governing the distribution patterns of Bembidion velox larvae and adults on the river banks of the River Elbe by means of habitat suitability models. The validity of the determined habitat factors for offspring performance and survival was tested in laboratory experiments.3. In the field, B. velox adults as well as larvae show a strong association with semiterrestrial, sandy, open soil habitats.4. In the laboratory, overall mortality of larvae reared in different substrates was lowest in sand of medium grain size mixed with fine and coarse sand. The first larval instars in particular reacted sensitively to variations in grain size. Furthermore, flood resistance of eggs was demonstrated, as 90% of larvae hatched under permanently flooded conditions. 5. Short development times were recorded, with 4 -7 days for hatching of young larvae from eggs after oviposition and approximately 28 days for the development of adults from newly hatched larvae. This probably increases the survival probability for the preimaginal stages in dynamic habitats.6. In conclusion, it can be said that reproductive success is strongly dependent on oviposition site selection by adults as this reflects the ecological demands of the immature stages.

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