This paper investigates whether physicians induce demand for C-sections in the days preceding leisure periods. I reject that doctors are meaningfully increasing the number of primary cesareans to accommodate their own preferences for control of deliveries around holiday Mondays. Using a sample of more than 1,300,000 deliveries, I can estimate that the induced demand due to convenience is close to zero. A small signicant eect is found for women having had a previous C-section. While I replicate previous results of lower C-section rates on leisure periods, I show that they are due to the way doctors schedule planned cesareans rather than to an induced demand for reason of physicians' convenience. If induced demand occurs, the decision takes place in the labor room and is not planned in advance.
If a further expansion of day surgery is envisaged in Belgium the factors that contribute to the current variability in day-surgery rates between hospitals should be addressed. In addition, a feedback system in which hospitals and health care providers have the figures on their percentage of procedures carried out in day surgery compared to other hospitals and care providers (benchmarking) and the monitoring of a number of quality indicators (e.g. unplanned readmission, unplanned inpatient stay, emergency department visit) should be installed.
Background
We examine the implications of reducing the average length of stay (ALOS) for a delivery on the required capacity in terms of service volume and maternity beds in Belgium, using administrative data covering all inpatient stays in Belgian general hospitals over the period 2003–2014.
Methods
A projection model generates forecasts of all inpatient and day-care services with a time horizon of 2025. It adjusts the observed hospital use in 2014 to the combined effect of three evolutions: the change in population size and composition, the time trend evolution of ALOS, and the time trend evolution of the admission rates. In addition, we develop an alternative scenario to evaluate the impact of an accelerated reduction of ALOS.
Results
Between 2014 and 2025, we expect the number of deliveries to increase by 4.41%, and the number of stays in maternity services by 3.38%. At the same time, a reduction in ALOS is projected for all types of deliveries. The required capacity for maternity beds will decrease by 17%. In case of an accelerated reduction of the ALOS to reach international standards, this required capacity for maternity beds will decrease by more than 30%.
Conclusions
Despite an expected increase in the number of deliveries, future hospital capacity in terms of maternity beds can be considerably reduced in Belgium, due to the continuing reduction of ALOS.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4500-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Senegalese consumers seem to prefer local fresh milk-based dairy products rather than the ones produced with imported powder. However, market prices of both products do not appear to be di erent. This paper addresses this puzzle. First, I con rm the preference for local products. Using choice-based-conjoint data, I evaluate that Senegalese consumers are willing to pay a positive and signi cant premium for these products. Then, I identify the determinants of prices, based on a unique dataset of milk products characteristics. Evidence suggests that consumers' misinformation regarding the product composition prevents them from allocating a higher price to local milk-based products.
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