People have increased the amount of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment as a result of food production methods and consumption choices. However, the connection between dietary choices and environmental impacts over time has not yet been studied in China. Here we combine a nitrogen footprint tool, the N-Calculator, with a food chain model, NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use), to analyze the N footprint of food in China. We use the NUFER model to provide a detailed estimation of the amounts and forms of Nr released to the environment during food production, which is then used to calculate virtual nitrogen factors (VNFs, unit: kg N released/kg N in product) of major food items. The food N footprint consists of the food consumption N footprint and food production N footprint. The average per capita food N footprint increased from 4.7 kg N capita À1 yr À1 in the 1960s to 21 kg N capita À1 yr À1 in the 2000s, and the national food N footprint in China increased from 3.4 metric tons (MT) N yr À1 in the 1960s to 28 MT N yr À1 in the 2000s. The proportion of the food N footprint that is animal-derived increased from 37% to 54% during this period. The food production N footprint accounted for 84% of the national food N footprint in the 2000s, compared to 62% in the 1960s. More Nr has been added to the food production systems to produce enough food for a growing population that is increasing its per-capita food consumption. The increasing VNFs in China indicate that an increasing amount of Nr is being lost per unit of N embedded in food products consumed by humans in the past five decades. National N losses from food production increased from 6 MT N yr À1 in the 1960s to 23 MT N yr À1 in the 2000s. N was lost to the environment in four ways: ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions and dinitrogen (N 2 ) emissions through denitrification (each account for nearly 40%), N losses to water systems (20%), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions (1%). The average per capita food N footprint in China is relatively high compared with those of developed countries in the 2000s. To reduce the food N footprint in China, it is important to both reduce the Nr losses during food production and encourage diets associated with a lower N footprint, such as shifting towards a more plant-based diet.
China has an ever-increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2-fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy-related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO ) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle-feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.
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