The purpose of this paper is to model and predict consumer patronage behaviour in terms of relative shopping frequencies in two shopping destinations -in the city centre and in an edge-of-town retail park. Two different quantile regression models for both destinations, the demographic and the behavioural, were constructed based on existing literature and data collected in 2001. In the demographic model the independent variables were the distance separating respondents and respective shopping destinations, and demographic variables describing the households. The behavioural model consisted of statements concerning the importance of various store choice criteria. The revealed preference approach was adopted, i.e. information revealed by past behaviour was used to extract the most powerful predictors of relative visit frequencies. The study is based on longitudinal data collected over a period of 11 years (2001, 2003, 2006, and 2011), which enabled the monitoring of the long-term effects of retail change on consumer behaviour. Access to longitudinal data enabled us to test the viability of the models using both in-sample (2006) and out-of-sample (2011) predictions. The results strongly support the existing literature emphasising the importance of distance and accessibility in store choice.

Knowing the past, seeing the future -an exploratory study on the viability of retail patronage models based on revealed behaviour,

This study examines ground-floor retail vacancies in Turku CBD in 2016–2021. It is based on a longitudinal database formed for the study, interviews, discussions with the stakeholders, and documentary analysis. The study found that three fourths of the vacancies were short-term. The long-term vacancies were spaces no longer meeting the requirements of contemporary retailing. In cases where property development was possible, planning disputes may prolong the vacancies for years or even decades.