The aim of this study is to determine whether the stock indices of some developed and developing countries react similarly to the price movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In this study, the impact of DJIA on other indices during the 2008 global financial crisis, was explored by using the Vector Error Correction Model. The data used was analyzed in two periods: (1) the expansionary period; and (2) the contractionary period of the FED's policies. The results of the analysis indicate that the developed and emerging stock markets react differently to the DJIA. The results include important findings for decisions by financial investors and policy makers.

The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not there are any over-reactions to the positive and negative events of the Borsa Istanbul 100 index (BIST-100) in relation to the Dow Jones Industrial index (DJIA).  The daily stock indexes between January 2010 and June 2016 are used in this research. The research finding showed that BIST-100 reacts in the same way as DJIA up to 3.31% and the reaction decreases and was lost between 30 and 60 days against the positive changes. In case of adverse events the BIST 100 shows abnormal decline in protecting the efficient market hypothesis is valid for 30 days after the event, however, the decline is reversed until the 60’th days when all losses are compensated. This terminates the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. This study shows that the BIST 100 index does not comply with the efficient market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of the overreaction hypothesis. Study results include stock investments, whose findings will have an impact on portfolio management decisions of investors.

ÖzBu çalışma Federal Rezerv Bankası(FED) ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası(TCMB) politika kararları arasında stratejik bir etkileşim durumunu inceleme üzerine kurulmuştur. Bu çerçevede, çalışma TCMB' nin uyguladığı politikaların, FED' in politika kararlarından etkilenip etkilenmediğini oyun teorik bir lider-takipçi ilişkisi üzerinden analiz etmektedir. Bunun için, FED ve TCMB arasındaki etkileşim oyun teorik olarak modellenmiştir. Modelde öne sürülen hipotezler 2006M01-2020M12 dönemleri için Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımını kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Bulgular, oyun teorik olarak FED' in lider olduğu ve FED ve TCMB arasında bir lider-takipçi durumun ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir.

In this study, we present about the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy makers in the Turkish economy since the 2001 crisis. This interaction is evaluated by a theoretical perspective of the game. The data show that there is a conflict between the monetary and fiscal policy makers in the Turkish economy, especially in some periods. The coordination problem created by this conflict is affecting social welfare negatively. Therefore, we argue that during these periods, there is a state of "Prisoners' Dilemma" among policy makers.

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