During the period 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The period 2002-2005 saw a dramatic reversal of the historic relationship between energy use and GDP growth: energy use per unit of GDP increased an average of 3.8% per year during this period (NBS, various years). China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP), which covers the period 2006-2010, required all government divisions at different levels to reduce energy intensity by 20% in five years in order to regain the relationship between energy and GDP growth experienced during the 1980s and 1990s. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010. The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energy-efficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to the 11th FYP, has become very robust during the 11th FYP period. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure to reduce the share of energy consumed by industry, do not appear to be on track to meet the stated goals. With the implementation of the 11 th FYP now bearing fruit, it is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010 (originally announced as "20% more or less" (20%左右). The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energyefficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets.Table ES-2 provides information on the primary energy savings identified for each of the programs reviewed in this report. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the ES-2Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to t...

Although China became the world's largest CO 2 emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios -Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement -were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO 2 emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.

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The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems, and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyze bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioral failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g., unrealistic representation of decision making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modeling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioral determinants, and policy considerations.