The version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version. Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite the published version of record.

No abstract

No abstract

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires the achievement of good status in the water environment through the implementation of River Basin Management Plans (RBMP). The long-term impact of these plans and their contribution to the achievement of good status is however generally difficult to predict and quantify, thus presenting an important constraint in this planning process. Numerical models are a tool which can enable water managers to predict the effective impact of measures on a water-body scale, and therefore enable a more reliable assessment of the effectiveness of the plan in achieving the set objectives. The FREEWAT Project aims at the development of an open source and public domain GIS integrated modelling environment for the simulation of water quantity and quality in surface water and groundwater bodies. One of the pilot initiatives under this project focuses on the island of Gozo (Malta) where the FREEWAT modelling environment is being used for the development of a numerical model of the mean sea-level groundwater body present in this island. This paper assesses the integration of this numerical model in the river basin management framework of the island, in support of the achievement of the good status objectives for this groundwater body. The paper focuses on the application of the FREEWAT based numerical model for the assessment of the impact of the groundwater management strategies envisaged under Malta's 2 nd RBMP on the quantitative status of the groundwater body. Furthermore, it provides an outlook on the application of the model to assess the response of the groundwater body to changing natural conditions arising due to the projected impact of climate change. In so doing, the modelling framework provides water managers the opportunity to consider within the basin river management framework the necessary flexibilities to ensure the continued achievement of the WFD's objectives under future scenarios.

Two small Maltese aquifers, Mizieb and Pwales, were numerically analyzed to test the existing hydrogeological conceptual model and suggest optimized groundwater monitoring strategies in support of the forthcoming monitoring network coordinated by the Government of Malta through the Energy and Water Agency. The model will undergo further revision of the concepts on which it is based as soon as new data is available, considering the conceptual and numerical model development as parallel activities, rather than as sequential. The model structure and parameter estimation made use of qualitative information and data acquired by archive research; during model calibration information/assumptions were introduced as “prior information” while the available measurements were introduced as classical “observations” with proper associated weight. The information content of both qualitative and quantitative data could be assimilated along the calibration process, highlighting the uncertainties and open questions that remain because of data insufficiency.