No abstract

No abstract

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

Muskingum method, • transformation of a flood wave, • calibration of parameters, • genetic algorithm. ABSTRACTThe Muskingum method is a hydrological flow routing model with lumped parameters, which describes the transformation of discharge waves in a river bed using two equations. The first one is the continuity equation (conservation of mass) and the second equation is the relationship between the storage, inflow, and outflow of the reach (the discharge storage equation). These equations are applied within a river reach between two cross sections of a river. The parameters of the model can be estimated by several methods. Here the classical graphic method is compared with two new methods where a genetic algorithm and harmony search was used for optimization. The discrete state space formulation of the Muskingum method was applied on the lower Morava reach between Moravský Svätý Ján and Záhorská Ves. The results showed a good degree of accuracy of all three methods, which were assessed by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient.

The intensification of agricultural production brings problems related to water erosion, even to the upper parts of river basins. Soil particles that have eroded from unprotected agricultural land are often deposited in small water reservoirs, the efficiency or function of which might be compromised. This study presents an analysis of changes in the retention capacity of a small water reservoir over a period of 8 years. Within the study, a detailed bathymetry of the reservoir was conducted using an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The results, when compared to a 2008 geodetic survey, showed that the retention volume of the reservoir was reduced by only 2%, which was also confirmed by mathematical modeling. The possibility of strengthening the reservoir’s role in flood protection was also investigated. A flood wave with a return period of 100 years was estimated using a design storm approach. A simple numerical model was proposed to transform the flood wave through the reservoir by considering four different scenarios of the elevation of the initial water level. The model, which is based on a water balance equation, uses simple hydraulic relationships to control the discharge through the reservoir’s outflow objects. The results demonstrate that by reducing the initial water level, significant improvements in terms of the flood peak’s attenuation and a longer time to peak values could be achieved.