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Background: We developed a deep learning algorithm that detects coronary artery calcium (CAC) score using 12-lead electrocardiograms (CAC- ECG). We tested the hypothesis that the output from the CAC-ECG algorithm would be associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and that the CAC- ECG would refine the AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation’s (PCE) predictive capabilities. Methods: A community-based cohort of consecutive patients seeking primary care in Olmsted County, MN, between 1998-2000 with passive follow-up via record linkage. Inclusion was identical to the PCE. The original CAC-ECG was developed in 43,210 subjects yielding an AUC of 0.83. Herein, we used the CAC-ECG output to predict a high CAC (≥ 300). Primary outcome was ASCVD defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke, secondary outcome was Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) further including PCI, CABG, and mortality. Events were validated in duplicate. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for variables included in the PCE and were stratified to evaluate the effect of the CAC-ECG on PCE-predicted risk. Follow-up was truncated at 10 years for PCE analyses. Results: We included 24,793 subjects, mean ± SD age 53.9 ± 12.1, 52% women, 95% white. After 16.7±3.7 yrs follow-up, 2,366 (9.5%) had ASCVD and 3,401 (13.7%) had MACE. Risk of ASCVD and MACE increased with CAC-ECG probability quintiles, independent of risk factors, p for trend <0.001 ( Fig. A-B ). The CAC-ECG enhanced the predicted capabilities of the PCE across all ASCVD risk groups ( Fig. C ). Net reclassification improved 13.7% with comparable C-statistic from 0.77 vs. 0.78 for PCE and CAC-ECG. Conclusions: CAC-ECG was associated with ASCVD and MACE and improved PCE predicted risk. The CAC-ECG algorithm could identify individuals at risk in primary prevention; Unlike the PCE, the CAC-ECG can be applied without chart review or performing a computer tomography and may be reliably used retrospectively in cohorts with digitally stored ECGs.

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Background: We developed a deep learning algorithm to predict elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) score from 12-lead electrocardiograms (CAC- ECG). We tested the hypothesis that this CAC-ECG algorithm will independently predict long-term survival. Methods: We leveraged a historical cohort of 43,210 consecutive patients who from the years 1997-2020 underwent clinically indicated ECG-gated unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT) to identify and quantify CAC and had an ECG within 1 year of the CT. Data on cardiovascular risk (CV) factors, and to calculate the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) for ASCVD was collected as part of preventive cardiology or general medical evaluations. We used the oldest CAC in record and excluded those taking statins at the time of the CAC. The algorithm was trained in 60% of the cohort, and the association between CAC-ECG and survival was evaluated with multivariate cox proportional hazard models in 40% of the remaining observations. Results: Of the 17,284 evaluated patients, mean ± SD age 55.9 ± 9.9, 33% female, 3,714 (21%) had elevated CAC ≥ 300. During an average of 15±5.9 years follow-up, 848 (5%) patients died. The algorithm’s area under the receiving operating characteristics curve (ROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy to detect a CAC ≥ 300 were 0.83, 0.90%, 0.56%, 0.60%. Those with elevated CAC had a nearly two-fold risk of death, a value similar to those deemed positive by the ECG-CAC algorithm ( Figure A ). Risk of death increased with CAC-ECG probability quartiles ( Figure A ). The CAC-ECG algorithm enhanced predicted capabilities of the PCE across all ASCVD risk subgroups ( Figure B ), as well as in those with no CAC and elevated CAC ( Figure C ), all p for trend <0.001. Conclusions: A deep learning-enabled CAC-ECG algorithm was independently associated with long-term survival and enhanced current risk prediction paradigms. The CAC-ECG algorithm could help identify individuals at risk in primary prevention of CV disease.