Understanding the influence of environmental variability on population dynamics is a fundamental goal of ecology. Theory suggests that, for populations in variable environments, temporal correlations between demographic vital rates (e.g., growth, survival, reproduction) can increase (if positive) or decrease (if negative) the variability of year-to-year population growth. Because this variability generally decreases long-term population viability, vital rate correlations may importantly affect population dynamics in stochastic environments. Despite long-standing theoretical interest, it is unclear whether vital rate correlations are common in nature, whether their directions are predominantly negative or positive, and whether they are of sufficient magnitude to warrant broad consideration in studies of stochastic population dynamics. We used long-term demographic data for three perennial plant species, hierarchical Bayesian parameterization of population projection models, and stochastic simulations to address the following questions: (1) What are the sign, magnitude, and uncertainty of temporal correlations between vital rates? (2) How do specific pairwise correlations affect the year-toyear variability of population growth? (3) Does the net effect of all vital rate correlations increase or decrease year-to-year variability? (4) What is the net effect of vital rate correlations on the long-term stochastic population growth rate (λ s )? We found only four moderate to strong correlations, both positive and negative in sign, across all species and vital rate pairs; otherwise, correlations were generally weak in magnitude and variable in sign. The net effect of vital rate correlations ranged from a slight decrease to an increase in the year-to-year variability of population growth, with average changes in variance ranging from −1% to +22%. However, vital rate correlations caused virtually no change in the estimates of λ s (mean effects ranging from −0.01% to +0.17%). Therefore, the proportional changes in the variance of population growth caused by demographic correlations were too small on an absolute scale to importantly affect population growth and viability. We conclude that, in our three focal populations and perhaps more generally, vital rate correlations have little effect on stochastic population dynamics. This may be good news for population ecologists, because estimating vital rate correlations and incorporating them into population models can be data intensive and technically challenging.

Since plant mating choices are flexible and responsive to the environment, rates of spontaneous hybridization may vary across ecological clines. Developing a robust and predictive framework for rates of plant gene flow requires assessing the role of environmental sensitivity on plant reproductive traits, relative abundance, and pollen vectors. Therefore, across a soil moisture gradient, we quantified pollinator movement, life-history trait variation, and unidirectional hybridization rates from crop (Raphanus sativus) to wild (Raphanus raphanistrum) radish populations. Both radish species were grown together in relatively dry (no rain), relatively wet (double rain), or control soil moisture conditions in Ohio, USA. We measured wild and crop radish life-history, phenology and pollinator visitation patterns. To quantify hybridization rates from crop-to-wild species, we used a simply inherited morphological marker to detect F1 hybrid progeny. Although crop-to-wild hybridization did not respond to watering treatments, the abundance of hybrid offspring was higher in fruits produced late in the period of phenological overlap, when both species had roughly equal numbers of open flowers. Therefore, the timing of fruit production and its relationship to flowering overlap may be more important to hybrid zone formation in Raphanus spp. than soil moisture or pollen vector movements.

Heritable microbes are abundant in nature and influential to their hosts and the communities in which they reside. However, drivers of variability in the prevalence of heritable symbionts and their rates of transmission are poorly resolved, particularly across host populations experiencing variable biotic and abiotic environments. To fill these gaps, we surveyed 25 populations of two native grasses (Elymus virginicus and Elymus canadensis) across the southern Great Plains (USA). Both grass species host heritable endophytic fungi (genus Epichloё) and can hybridize where their ranges overlap. From a subset of hosts, we characterized endophyte genotype using genetic loci that link to bioactive alkaloid production. First, we found mean vertical transmission rates and population-level prevalence were positively correlated, specifically for E. virginicus. However, both endophyte prevalence and transmission varied substantially across populations and did not strongly correlate with abiotic variables, with one exception: endophyte prevalence decreased as drought stress decreased for E. virginicus hosts. Second, we evaluated the potential influence of biotic factors and found that, after accounting for climate, endophyte genotype explained significant variation in symbiont inheritance. We also contrasted populations where host species co-occurred in sympatry vs. allopatry. Sympatry could potentially increase interspecific hybridization, but this variable did not associate with patterns of symbiont prevalence or transmission success. Our results reveal substantial variability in symbiont prevalence and transmission across host populations and identify symbiont genotype, and to a lesser extent, the abiotic environment as sources of this variation.

Beneficial inherited symbionts are expected to reach high prevalence in host populations, yet many are observed at intermediate prevalence. Theory predicts that a balance of fitness benefits and efficiency of vertical transmission may interact to stabilize intermediate prevalence. We established populations of grass hosts (Lolium multiflorum) that varied in prevalence of a heritable fungal endophyte (Epichloё occultans), allowing us to infer long-term equilibria by tracking change in prevalence over one generation. We manipulated an environmental stressor (elevated precipitation), which we hypothesized would reduce the fitness benefits of symbiosis, and altered the efficiency of vertical transmission by replacing endophyte-positive seeds with endophyte-free seeds. Endophytes and elevated precipitation both increased host fitness, but symbiont effects were not stronger in the drier treatment, suggesting that benefits of symbiosis were unrelated to drought tolerance. Reduced transmission suppressed the inferred equilibrium prevalence from 42.6% to 11.7%. However, elevated precipitation did not modify prevalence, consistent with the result that it did not modify fitness benefits. Our results demonstrate that failed transmission can influence the prevalence of heritable microbes and that intermediate prevalence can be a stable equilibrium due to forces that allow symbionts to increase (fitness benefits) but prevent them from reaching fixation (failed transmission).

Aim The aim of this study was to investigate patterns of genetic isolation associated with populations in discrete habitat patches in a North American cold desert through analysis of the pallid dotted‐blue butterfly, Euphilotes pallescens. This small butterfly is largely restricted to low‐elevation habitats across the Great Basin. The apparent geographical isolation and reported morphological variation among E. pallescens populations makes this species an ideal candidate with which to investigate patterns of genetic isolation and diversification in this arid region. Location Great Basin, western North America. Methods We used sequence data from nuclear and mitochondrial genes to investigate genetic diversity among E. pallescens populations, and among E. pallescens and a number of closely related Euphilotes species, using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, as well as population genetic analyses. In conjunction with genetic variation, morphological variation was examined in the context of geographical and subspecific differentiation. Results Our genetic and morphological analyses suggest a moderate amount of isolation among populations, consistent with the hypothesis of restricted gene flow among isolated dune habitats, and possibly associated with isolation in distinct Pleistocene refugia. The patterns of diversification within E. pallescens and among closely related species are complicated by discordance among phylogenetic reconstructions based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Discordance among gene genealogies suggests a complex evolutionary history, perhaps involving alternating periods of reticulation and divergence in isolation. Main conclusions Although E. pallescens may be a vagile species, we find that persistence on isolated dunes in the Great Basin is associated with appreciable genetic and morphological differentiation among populations. However, genetic, morphological and taxonomic axes of variation are only partially in agreement. More generally, the discordance we find among genetic regions is consistent with the ascendant paradigm in phylogenetic reconstruction: gene genealogies often do not perfectly match species trees. Thus we present Euphilotes as a model for future biogeographical and phylogenetic reconstructions employing larger data sets of independent sequence markers.