For the Cramér-Lundberg risk model with phase-type claims, it is shown that the probability of ruin before an independent phase-type time H coincides with the ruin probability in a certain Markovian fluid model and therefore has an matrix-exponential form. When H is exponential, this yields in particular a probabilistic interpretation of a recent result of Avram & Usabel. When H is Erlang, the matrix algebra takes a simple recursive form, and fixing the mean of H at T and letting the number of stages go to infinity yields a quick approximation procedure for the probability of ruin before time T. Numerical examples are given, including a combination with extrapolation.
This paper provides a general framework for pricing options with a constant barrier under spectrally one-sided exponential LÃ evy model, and uses it to implement of Carr's approximation for the value of the American put under this model. Simple analytic approximations for the exercise boundary and option value are obtained.
When claims in the compound Poisson risk model are from a heavy-tailed distribution (such as the Pareto or the lognormal), traditional techniques used to compute the probability of ultimate ruin converge slowly to desired probabilities. Thus, faster and more accurate methods are needed. Product integration can be used in such situations to yield fast and accurate estimates of ruin probabilities because it uses quadrature weights that are suited to the underlying distribution. Tables of ruin probabilities for the Pareto and lognormal distributions are provided.
Multivariate characteristics of risk processes are of high interest to academic actuaries. In such models, the probability of ruin is obtained not only by considering initial reserves u but also the severity of ruin y and the surplus before ruin x. This ruin probability can be expressed using an integral equation that can be efficiently solved using the Gaver-Stehfest method of inverting Laplace transforms. This approach can be considered to be an alternative to recursive methods previously used in actuarial literature.JEL classification: G22; IM13; IM20
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