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Recent (active) tectonics of the Pannonian Basin and its surroundings has been investigated using data from over 900 earthquake focal mechanism solutions, 200 borehole breakout analyses, some in-situ stress measurements and by applying finite element modelling technique. We have established a database for indicators of recent stress, and analysed the stress state of the region by the methods of the World Stress Map project. The alignments of the largest horizontal stresses have been mapped and the tectonic regimes were also determined. We present a map of seismoactive faults and seismic energy release combining historical and modern seismicity data and results of local seismotectonic studies. The pattern of earthquake slip vectors and the style of faulting are summarised in order to characterise the active deformations. Our results show that the alignment of the largest horizontal stress exhibits a radial pattern around the Adriatic sea. In the Southern Alps and northwestern Dinarides the largest horizontal stress (SH) is aligned N-S and thrust faulting is dominant. Along the southern Dinarides and the Dalmatian coast thrusting with strike-slip component can be observed. Here the trajectories of SH are aligned NE-SW. E-W aligned SH trajectories and normal faulting are characteristic of the Rhodope Massif. Thrust faulting of the Vrancea region seems to be distinct from the compressive regime around the Adriatic sea. In the Pannonian Basin borehole breakout analyses show that the direction of largest horizontal stress is changing from N-S in the western part to NE-SW in the east. Most of focal mechanisms and available hydraulic fracturing measurements indicate strike-slip and thrust faulting inside the basin. The lack of normal faulting mechanisms indicates that the extension of the basin has been terminated and a new compressive stress regime prevails. The crustal deformation of the area is controlled by the counterclockwise rotation of Adria with respect to Europe around a pole at the 45°N latitude and 6–10°E longitudes, which is inferred from satellite geodesy and supported by earthquake slip vectors. This movement can explain the shortening of the Southern Alps, and squeezing eastward the region between the Adriatic sea and the Mur-Murz line. Rotation of Adria generates thrusts along the Dalmatian coast, and this compressive deformation extends into the land far from the coastline, and leads to squeezing of the Pannonian Basin from the southwest. The seismicity pattern in the Pannonian Basin shows that earthquakes are restricted to the crust and the control by pre-existing (mostly Miocene) fault zones is strongly masked by random activity due to general weakness of the lithosphere. Although earthquakes are of small to medium magnitude (M ≤ 6), the cummulative energy release is remarkably higher than in the surrounding Carpathian arc. The Vrancea zone is the only exception, where high energy release in the crust and down to 200 km depth is associated with a relict subducted slab. Finite element stress modelling has been performed in order to simulate the observed stress pattern and, hence, to understand the importance of different possible stress sources in and around the Pannonian Basin. The observed radial stress pattern of the region can be well explained by the counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate as a first-order stress source. Additional boundary conditions, such as the active deformation at the Vrancea zone and the role of rigid crustal blocks at the Bohemian Massif and the Moesian Platform, can significantly effect the style of deformation and the alignment of the largest horizontal stress. Furthermore, our calculations show that differences in the crustal thickness and the presence of large scale fault zones in the Pannonian region have only local influence on the model results.

Clusters of earthquakes in continental intraplate regions are used to estimate the times and magnitudes of past earthquakes in a model we call "paleoseismicity." The time of a past earthquake is estimated from an Omori-law decay of the aftershocks with time, while the magnitude of the earthquake is inferred from the length of the current zone of seismic activity. The observed aftershocks of several intraplate earthquakes are used to find the parameters describing the Omorilaw aftershock decay, and these parameters are found to fall in the same range as those for aftershock sequences from California. The paleoseismicity model is shown to be approximately consistent with the current seismicity rates at the New Madrid, Missouri; Charleston, South Carolina; and Charlevoix, Qudbec seismic zones. Near Basel in Switzerland, the paleoseismicity model is consistent with the occurrence of the large earthquake there in 1356. However, at ArdennesHautes Fagnes, Belgium; Hainaut, Belgium; and Bree, Belgium the paleoseismicity model either underestimates the rate of current seismicity or suggests earthquakes not known in the historic record. The paleoseismicity model may be most applicable to low-strain-rate, intraplate regions where aftershock rates above the background seismicity level can persist for very long periods of time. If many current small earthquakes are aftershocks of past large events, then it may not be appropriate to use earthquake rates from recent seismicity to calculate the seismic hazard in probabilistic analyses.

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