No abstract

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (SOHO/ERNE). In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (Electron Proton Helium Instrument) (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis was performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s [ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far-eastern solar hemisphere; for instance, such an event with a well-established associated GOES flare has so far occurred three times during cycle 24 but possibly not at all during cycle 23. The generally lower level of solar activity during cycle 24, as opposed to cycle 23, has probably caused a significant decrease in total ambient pressure in the interplanetary space, leading to a larger proportion of SEP-associated halo-type CMEs. Taken together, these observations point to a qualitative difference between the two solar cycles.

Solar energetic particles are one of the main sources of particle radiation seen in space. In the first part of September 2017 the most active solar period of cycle 24 produced four large X-class flares and a series of (interplanetary) coronal mass ejections, which gave rise to radiation storms seen over all energies and at the ground by neutron monitors. This paper presents comprehensive cross comparisons of in situ radiation detector data from near-Earth satellites to give an appraisal on the state of present data processing for monitors of such particles. Many of these data sets have been the target of previous cross calibrations, and this event with a hard spectrum provides the opportunity to validate these results. As a result of the excellent agreement found between these data sets and the use of neutron monitor data, this paper also presents an analytical expression for fluence spectrum for the event. Derived ionizing dose values have been computed to show that although there is a significant high-energy component, the event was not particularly concerning as regards dose effects in spacecraft electronics. Several sets of spacecraft data illustrating single event effects are presented showing a more significant impact in this regard. Such a hard event can penetrate thick shielding; human dose quantities measured inside the International Space Station and derived through modeling for aircraft altitudes are also presented. Lastly, simulation results of coronal mass ejection propagation through the heliosphere are presented along with data from Mars-orbiting spacecraft in addition to data from the Mars surface.

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) pose a serious radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts. The highest energy SEPs are a significant threat even in heavily shielded applications. We present a new probabilistic model of very high energy differential peak proton fluxes. The model is based on GOES/HEPAD observations between 1986 and 2018, i.e., covering very nearly three complete solar cycles. The SEP event list for the model was defined using a statistical criterion derived by setting the possibility of false detection of an event to 1%. The peak flux distributions were calculated for the interpolated energies 405 MeV, 500 MeV and 620 MeV, and modelled with exponentially cut off power law functions. The HEPAD data were cleaned and corrected using a “bow-tie” method which is based on the response functions of the HEPAD channels P8–P10 found in the instrument calibration reports. The results of the model are available to the Space Weather community as a web-based tool at the ESA’s Space Situational Awareness Programme Space Weather Service Network.

No abstract