The article presents the results of the research, the relevance of which is determined by the urgent need to improve the management tools of enterprises of the radio–electronic industry at the present time. The subject of the study is this tool used in the conditions of incomplete initial data and uncertainty of the external environment of enterprises due to changes in their production and economic activities during the period of production diversification. Some models describing the analyzed process taking into account its specifics are considered, which allow obtaining probabilistic–time estimates of the development of enterprises in the studied conditions. For this purpose, we used methods that take into account the vibrational component in the analyzed time series, as well as expert methods. The application of the proposed algorithms in practice helps to optimize diversification measures, accelerate the innovative development of radio–electronic industry enterprises and increase its efficiency.
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