The article develops a methodology of determining the optimal indicators of the investment program for the development of the region oil industry. The issues of assessing the effectiveness of capital investments in the exploration and development of oil fields, taking into account the delayed and distributed over time impact of such investments on the volume of crude oil production, were investigated. The methodological basis of the study is mathematical modeling of investment processes in the oil industry using distributed lag models. Much attention is paid to the study of the influence of random factors on the effectiveness of capital investments and the parameters of the optimal investment program. The article develops a methodology that allows excluding the vector of unobservable system parameters from the equations of the mathematical model and takes into account the change in the nature of the influence of random factors when replacing endogenous parameters of the model. The proposed model of the investment process shows how the efficiency of capital investments in the development of the region oil industry increases depending on the accepted structure of such investments lag. The conclusion indicates the possibilities for improving the efficiency of investments using the developed model. The authors propose to synthesize the global optimization method with the included distributed lag model, which is used according to the method improved in the article.

Subject. The global oil market has experienced qualitative changes caused by the introduction of non-market methods into its regulation system, like the use of embargo, setting a price ceiling, stiffening sanctions. These changes require new approaches to studying the oil market and identifying the opportunities for its development. Objectives. The study aims to develop tools enabling to analyze the latest trends in the market transformation and identify possible ways of its development, to determine stable market conditions, and analyze possibilities of achieving market equilibrium. Methods. The main method of research is mathematical modeling. The methodology involves typification of object, taking into account its latest changes, building an appropriate research model, and verifying its adequacy by applying to the analysis of previous stages of market development. Results. I constructed a game model reflecting the main features of the oligopolistic market of goods with saturated demand. The model helped determine the main features of possible stable agreements in the oil market. The paper establishes the correspondence of the results of model experiments and real stable conditions of the world market. Conclusions. The model is suitable to examine the current state of the world oil market. The study of recent non-market methods is possible by including consumer countries in the set of players in the model.