Spatial synchrony, that is, correlated population fluctuation over wide geographical areas, has been detected in diverse taxa and over various geographical scales. The most commonly suggested mechanisms to explain spatial synchrony include dispersal and regional stochasticity (i.e., ''the Moran effect''). We analyzed landscape-scale historical outbreak data for six forest insect species: spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), western spruce budworm (C. occidentalis), larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana), forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). We used a recently developed statistical method (the nonparametric covariance function) for quantifying the magnitude and spatial range of synchrony in both outbreak and corresponding weather data. The varying dispersal capabilities of the species enabled us to speculate on the relative importance of dispersal vs. the Moran effect as potential mechanisms behind the observed patterns. Our results indicated that spatial synchrony was not directly associated with dispersal capabilities at the spatial scales considered. In contrast, the spatial correlation in weather variables was high enough to account for the levels of synchrony observed in the outbreak data. Therefore, the Moran effect appeared to be the more dominant process affecting the spatial dynamics of these species at the landscape scale. In general, however, the synchrony in outbreaks declined more steeply with geographical distance than the correlation in the weather variables, breaking with the predictions of Moran's theorem. A more detailed analysis of gypsy moth outbreak data showed that local dynamics varied considerably in a spatially dependent manner. The existence of such variation violates one of the assumptions of the Moran's theorem, namely, that the dynamic properties of disjunct populations are identical. We used a simple theoretical model to demonstrate that such geographical variation in local population dynamics may indeed force synchrony to decline more rapidly with distance than the correlation in the environment.

Dissecting components of population-level variation in seed production and the evolution of masting behavior. -Oikos 102: 581-591.Mast-fruiting or masting behavior is the cumulative result of the reproductive patterns of individuals within a population and thus involves components of individual variability, between-individual synchrony, and endogenous cycles of temporal autocorrelation. Extending prior work by Herrera, we explore the interrelationships of these components using data on individual seed production in 59 populations of plants from 24 species spanning a large range of annual variability, from species exhibiting strong masting to others with little annual variability in seed production. Estimates of population and individual variability were not biased by sample size or average overall seed production when based on untransformed seed production values, but these values declined as log-transformed seed production increased. Population variability was more strongly correlated with individual variability (r = 0.86) than individual synchrony (r = 0.73). These latter two components were also significantly correlated (r =0.45), but randomizations confirm that they need not covary closely. Thus, selection can act separately on inter-annual variability and between-individual synchrony. We illustrate the potential for such fine-tuned selection on seed production patterns by discussing several examples and by demonstrating significant differences in components of population-level variation in seed production among species related to their life-history.

Spatially extended population models predict complex spatiotemporal patterns, such as spiral waves and spatial chaos, as a result of the reaction-diffusion dynamics that arise from trophic interactions. However, examples of such patterns in ecological systems are scarce. We develop a quantitative technique to demonstrate the existence of waves in Central European larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) outbreaks. We show that these waves travel toward the northeast-east at 210 kilometers per year. A theoretical model involving a moth-enemy interaction predicts directional waves, but only if dispersal is directionally biased or habitat productivity varies across the landscape. Our study confirms that nonlinear ecological interactions can lead to complex spatial dynamics at a regional scale.

No abstract

Mast seeding, the synchronous production of large crops of seeds, has been frequently documented in oak species. In this study we used several North American oak data-sets to quantify within-stand ( B10 km) synchrony in mast dynamics. Results indicated that intraspecific synchrony in seed production always exceeded interspecific synchrony and was essentially constant over distances ranging from 100 m to 10 km. Asynchrony between species was at least partially attributable to differences in the endogenous dynamics in seed production caused by the varying numbers of years (1 or 2) required to mature seeds. Similarly, the magnitude of intraspecific seed production synchrony was related to intraspecific variation in endogenous dynamics; this intraspecific variation could be caused by spatial variation in habitat conditions. These results indicate that both interspecific and intraspecific variation in the endogenous processes generating variability in seed production may influence the magnitude of spatial synchrony in total (all species) mast production. Such findings may be of significance to understanding interactions between synchrony in mast seeding and animal consumer populations.A.