Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

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In this work, the authors examined the presence of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in 21 samples collected from fresh water bodies located in 5 provinces in Poland: Lublin (2), Podlasie (1), Pomerania (6), Warmia-Masuria (1) and Wielkopolska (11). In addition, to determine the general pattern of geographical distribution, frequency of cyanobacteria occurrence, and cyanotoxins production, the published data from 238 fresh water bodies in Poland were reviewed. On the basis of these collected results, we concluded that Planktothrix, Aphanizomenon, Microcystis and Dolichospermum were dominant. The general pattern in geographical distribution of the identified cyanobacterial genera was typical of other eutrophic waters in Europe. The production of cyanotoxins was revealed in 18 (86%) of the 21 samples analyzed in the present work and in 74 (75%) of the 98 total water bodies for which the presence of toxins had been examined. Among the 24 detected microcystin variants, [Asp 3 ]MC-RR was most common. These results can be verified when more data from the less explored water bodies in the southern and eastern parts of Poland are available.