To clarify pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) factors associated with the over-anticoagulation response in Asians during warfarin induction therapy, population PK-PD analyses were conducted in an attempt to predict the time-courses of the plasma S-warfarin concentration, Cp(S), and coagulation and anti-coagulation (INR) responses. In 99 Chinese patients we analyzed the relationships between dose and Cp(S) to estimate the clearance of S-warfarin, CL(S), and that between Cp(S) and the normal prothrombin concentration (NPT) as a coagulation marker for estimation of IC50. We also analyzed the non-linear relationship between NPT inhibition and the increase in INR to derive the non-linear index λ. Population analyses accurately predicted the time-courses of Cp(S), NPT and INR. Multivariate analysis showed that CYP2C9*3 mutation and body surface area were predictors of CL(S), that VKORC1 and CYP4F2 polymorphisms were predictors of IC50, and that baseline NPT was a predictor of λ. CL(S) and λ were significantly lower in patients with INR≥4 than in those with INR<4 (190 mL/h vs 265 mL/h, P<0.01 and 3.2 vs 3.7, P<0.01, respectively). Finally, logistic regression analysis revealed that CL(S), ALT and hypertension contributed significantly to INR≥4. All these results indicate that factors associated with the reduced metabolic activity of warfarin represented by CL(S), might be critical determinants of the over-anticoagulation response during warfarin initiation in Asians.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02065388

Using population pharmacokinetic analysis (PPK), we attempted to identify predictors of S-warfarin clearance (CL(S)) and to clarify population differences in S-warfarin pharmacokinetics among a cohort of 378 African American, Asian and white patients. Significant predictors of CL(S) included clinical (age, body weight and sex) and genotypic (CYP2C9*2,*3 and *8) factors, as well as African American ethnicity, the median CL(S) being 30% lower in the latter than in Asians and whites (170 versus 243 and 250 ml h, P<0.01). The plasma S-warfarin (Cp(S)) time courses following the genotype-based dosing algorithms simulated using the PPK estimates showed African Americans with CYP2C9*1/*1 and any of the VKORC1 genotypes would have an average Cp(S) at steady state 1.5-1.8 times higher than in Asians and whites. These results indicate warfarin dosing algorithms should be evaluated in each respective ethnic population. Further study of a large African American cohort will be necessary to confirm the present findings.

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African-Americans possess independent predictors of CL(S), possibly leading to a prediction error of any dosing algorithm that excludes African-specific variant(s). Original submitted 3 September 2014; Revision submitted 3 November 2014.

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