To achieve 1.5°C targets, we must realize zero-emission. This paper analyzed the possibility of zero-emission in the Japanese residential sector in 2050, using a bottom-up simulation model. We added three measures as follows: Improvement of energy efficiency, reduction of equipment number, and operation of macro-frame. By implementing these measures and installing solar cells, it is possible to realize zero-emission in 2050.However, most power generation deficiency days and power generation excess days occur on different seasons. Therefore, it is needed to transfer energy to other sectors or to develop an energy storage system able to store for a long time.
The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook suggests countermeasures for the residential sector such as making an energy efficiency standard compulsory for newly-built houses, installing high-efficiency water heaters. The Japanese government estimated reduction effect obtained by these countermeasures and asserts that the target value of CO2 emission reduction can be achieved. However, the estimation is based on a quite simple method, which is multiplication of reduction effect per unit by the installation number. In this study, a bottom-up simulation model verifies the reduction effect considering the difference caused by various factors such as climate condition, family composition, and building specification.
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