Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the Mediterranean Sea sub-domains) and the target area (Romania-centered domain). In winter, extreme cyclones became more frequent in the south and were also more persistent in the northeast of Romania. In summer, these became more intense and frequent, mainly over the south and southeast of Romania, where they also showed a significant increase in persistence. The regional extreme changes are related to polar jet displacements and further enhanced by the coupling of the sub-tropical jet in the Euro-Atlantic area, such as southwestwards shift in winter jets and a split-type configuration that shifts northeastwards and southeastwards in the summer. These provide a mechanism for regional variability of extreme cyclones through two paths, respectively, by shifting the origins of the tracks and by shifting the interaction between the anomaly jet streaks and the climatological storm tracks. Large-scale drivers of these changes are analyzed in relation to the main modes of atmospheric variability. The tracks number over the target domain is mainly driven during the cold season through a combined action of AO and Polar–European modes, and in summer by the AMO and East-Asian modes. These links and the circulation mode’s recent variability are consistent with changes found in the jet and storm tracks.

⎯ The 11 km regional ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption Dynamique Développment InterNational-Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) is evaluated by comparison with the 5 km deterministic model ALARO (ALADIN and AROME combined model-Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale), in order to investigate the advantages and disadvantages facing short-range ensemble and high-resolution forecasts. To make rational decisions about the benefits or challenges of both systems, the forecast skill was measured through probabilistic and deterministic approaches over a 2-month period from late spring to summer season of 2013. The verification uses observations from 1219 SYNOP stations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analysis from INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) nowcasting system. The evaluation was carried out for three essential meteorological variables: 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and 6-hour cumulated precipitation. From the probabilistic point of view, the results show that ALADIN-LAEF outperforms ALARO-LAGGED ensemble system, being statistically more reliable. From the deterministic point of view, the high-resolution deterministic system simulates better the precipitation forecast structure with respect to the observations. Compared to the ensemble system, the deterministic system cannot provide guidance concerning the forecast uncertainties or probabilities, making the ensemble products a powerful tool for risk assessment and decision making.